WSN⇄OAK

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net +$4.0M net +0.3

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $30M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 2.7 ± 4 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2021 odds 5% → 5% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Seth ShumanP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#194 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Drew MillasC·23y·S/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

#224 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Richard Guasch

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$4.0M net -0.3

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $13M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2021 odds 30% → 32% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh Harrison2B/3B·33y·R/R

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.62/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Yan GomesC·33y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.20/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.