RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.44× league · TAB -18.4
-18.4TAB — talent above budget
-16.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-4.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
63%dead money %24th/30
0.433win %20th/30
7.5roster fWAR23rd/30
-111surplus $M (value vs cost)29th/30
$170Mpayroll $M5th/30

Roster

CFVictor Robles 52GMichael A. Taylor 11GAndrew Stevenson 1G
LFJuan Soto 36GMichael A. Taylor 14GBrock Holt 9G
RFAdam Eaton 41GMichael A. Taylor 11GJuan Soto 6G
SSTrea Turner 59GWilmer Difo 4GLuis García Jr. 3G
2BLuis García Jr. 37GStarlin Castro 16GJosh Harrison 12G
3BCarter Kieboom 31GBrock Holt 18GAsdrúbal Cabrera 17G
1BEric Thames 27GAsdrúbal Cabrera 25GHowie Kendrick 6G
STARTERSMax Scherzer 1.8WARPatrick Corbin 1.2WARAníbal Sánchez 0.2WARAustin Voth -0.2WARErick Fedde -0.3WAR
CKurt Suzuki 30GYan Gomes 30G
DHHowie Kendrick 19GEric Thames 12GAsdrúbal Cabrera 11G
BULLPEN★ Daniel Hudson 10svTanner Rainey 9hWander Suero 7hWill Harris 6hJavy Guerra 5hKyle Finnegan 4hDakota Bacus 2hRyne Harper 1h
CKurt Suzuki 30 · Yan Gomes 30
1BEric Thames 27 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 25 · Howie Kendrick 6
2BLuis García Jr. 37 · Starlin Castro 16 · Josh Harrison 12
3BCarter Kieboom 31 · Brock Holt 18 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 17
SSTrea Turner 59 · Wilmer Difo 4 · Luis García Jr. 3
LFJuan Soto 36 · Michael A. Taylor 14 · Brock Holt 9
CFVictor Robles 52 · Michael A. Taylor 11 · Andrew Stevenson 1
RFAdam Eaton 41 · Michael A. Taylor 11 · Juan Soto 6
DHHowie Kendrick 19 · Eric Thames 12 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 11
SPMax Scherzer 1.8 · Patrick Corbin 1.2 · Aníbal Sánchez 0.2 · Austin Voth -0.2 · Erick Fedde -0.3
BP★ Daniel Hudson 10 · Tanner Rainey 9 · Wander Suero 7 · Will Harris 6 · Javy Guerra 5 · Kyle Finnegan 4 · Dakota Bacus 2 · Ryne Harper 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Trea Turner 27 arb 592.8 7.5 +12.8
Juan Soto 21 pre-arb 472.5 0.2 +18.2
Max Scherzer 35 FA-elig 121.8 35.9 -22.5
Patrick Corbin 30 FA-elig 111.2 19.4 -10.7
Andrew Stevenson 26 pre-arb 150.9 0.1 +6.3
Wander Suero 28 pre-arb 220.5 0.2 +3.6
Asdrúbal Cabrera 34 FA-elig 520.4 2.5 +0.3
Yan Gomes 32 FA-elig 300.4 4.0 -1.4
Kyle Finnegan 28 – 250.3 0.2 +2.3
Tanner Rainey 27 pre-arb 200.3 0.2 +1.7
Aníbal Sánchez 36 FA-elig 110.2 7.0 -5.6
Ben Braymer 26 – 30.2 0.1 +1.2
Josh Harrison 32 FA-elig 330.2 0.3 +0.9
Kurt Suzuki 36 FA-elig 330.1 6.0 -5.0
Starlin Castro 30 FA-elig 160.1 5.0 -4.0
Kyle McGowin 28 pre-arb 90.1 0.1 +0.8
Will Harris 35 FA-elig 200.1 8.0 -7.4
Paolo Espino 33 pre-arb 20.1 0.0 +0.6
Javy Guerra 34 arb 140.0 0.4 -0.0
Stephen Strasburg 31 FA-elig 20.0 35.0 -34.7
Sam Freeman 33 arb 70.0 0.2 -0.2
Ryne Harper 31 pre-arb 23-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Aaron Barrett 32 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Jake Noll 26 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.0 -0.3
Dakota Bacus 29 – 11-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Seth Romero 24 – 3-0.1 0.1 -0.8
Emilio Bonifácio 35 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.1 -0.8
Victor Robles 23 pre-arb 52-0.1 0.2 -1.1
Michael A. Taylor 29 FA-elig 38-0.1 3.3 -4.3
James Bourque 26 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.1 -1.3
Brock Holt↔ MIL 32 FA-elig 21-0.2 1.4 -2.6
Yadiel Hernandez 32 – 12-0.2 0.0 -1.2
Austin Voth 28 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.2 -1.7
Carter Kieboom 22 pre-arb 33-0.2 0.2 -1.7
Howie Kendrick 36 FA-elig 25-0.2 6.2 -7.9
Wilmer Difo 28 arb 12-0.2 1.0 -2.8
Sean Doolittle 33 FA-elig 11-0.3 6.5 -8.3
Erick Fedde 27 pre-arb 11-0.3 0.2 -2.2
Adam Eaton 31 FA-elig 41-0.3 9.5 -11.9
Daniel Hudson 33 FA-elig 21-0.4 5.0 -7.9
Luis García Jr. 20 – 40-0.4 – –
Wil Crowe 25 – 3-0.5 0.0 -3.4
Eric Thames 33 FA-elig 41-0.6 3.0 -7.4

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Kyle Finnegan0.3
Ben Braymer0.2
Josh Harrison0.2
Starlin Castro0.1
Will Harris0.1
Paolo Espino0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Anthony Rendon6.8
Brian Dozier1.5
Fernando Rodney0.5
Tony Sipp0.3
Gerardo Parra0.3
Jonny Venters0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$169.9M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Max Scherzer3511.079$35.9MFREE AGENT
Stephen Strasburg319.118$35.0MFREE AGENT
Patrick Corbin307.105$19.4MFREE AGENT
Adam Eaton317.030$9.5MFREE AGENT
Will Harris356.102$8.0MFREE AGENT
Aníbal Sánchez3613.099$7.0MFREE AGENT
Sean Doolittle337.122$6.5MFREE AGENT
Howie Kendrick3614.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki3612.112$6.0MFREE AGENT
Daniel Hudson339.106$5.0MFREE AGENT
Starlin Castro309.150$5.0MFREE AGENT
Yan Gomes327.083$4.0MFREE AGENT
Michael A. Taylor296.000$3.3MFREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera3412.027$2.5MFREE AGENT
Brock Holt326.052$1.4MFREE AGENT
Javy Guerra349.000$370kFREE AGENT
Josh Harrison328.033$348kFREE AGENT
Emilio Bonifácio357.135$83kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Trea Turner273.135$7.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Thames334.063$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Difo283.016$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Freeman334.066$213kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Juan Soto211.134$233kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Robles231.052$220kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wander Suero281.123$216kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Rainey270.158$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Voth280.127$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Finnegan280.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erick Fedde271.098$209kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carter Kieboom220.012$178kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Romero240.000$143kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryne Harper311.020$143kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dakota Bacus29–$140k
James Bourque260.005$112kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle McGowin280.069$81kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Stevenson261.063$72kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Braymer260.000$65kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yadiel Hernandez320.000$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Noll260.017$44kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Barrett322.170$40kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wil Crowe250.000$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paolo Espino330.059$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis García Jr.200.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.