RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Jim Beattie

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 9 in this regime · payroll 0.37× league · TAB +3.7
+3.7TAB — talent above budget13th/30
-0.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
34%dead money %20th/30
0.420win %26th/30
25.5roster fWAR22nd/30
+13surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$18Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFManny Martinez 126GRondell White 73GJames Mouton 16G
LFRondell White 102GOrlando Merced 44GJames Mouton 32G
RFVladimir Guerrero 160GJames Mouton 11GRyan McGuire 7G
SSOrlando Cabrera 102GGeoff Blum 42GMike Mordecai 38G
2BJose Vidro 121GWilton Guerrero 54GMike Mordecai 38G
3BMichael Barrett 66GMike Mordecai 32GTrace Coquillette 11G
1BBrad Fullmer 94GRyan McGuire 58GFernando Seguignol 23G
STARTERSDustin Hermanson 3.4WARJavier Vazquez 2.7WARMiguel Batista 2.3WARCarl Pavano 1.8WARMike Thurman 1.2WAR
CChris Widger 117GMichael Barrett 59GRobert Machado 17G
DHWilton Guerrero 5GOrlando Merced 2GShane Andrews 1G
BULLPEN★ Ugueth Urbina 41svAnthony Telford 18hSteve Kline 16hGuillermo Mota 3hScott Strickland 2hMel Rojas 1hJ.D. Smart 0hTed Lilly 0h
CChris Widger 117 · Michael Barrett 59 · Robert Machado 17
1BBrad Fullmer 94 · Ryan McGuire 58 · Fernando Seguignol 23
2BJose Vidro 121 · Wilton Guerrero 54 · Mike Mordecai 38
3BMichael Barrett 66 · Mike Mordecai 32 · Trace Coquillette 11
SSOrlando Cabrera 102 · Geoff Blum 42 · Mike Mordecai 38
LFRondell White 102 · Orlando Merced 44 · James Mouton 32
CFManny Martinez 126 · Rondell White 73 · James Mouton 16
RFVladimir Guerrero 160 · James Mouton 11 · Ryan McGuire 7
DHWilton Guerrero 5 · Orlando Merced 2 · Shane Andrews 1
SPDustin Hermanson 3.4 · Javier Vazquez 2.7 · Miguel Batista 2.3 · Carl Pavano 1.8 · Mike Thurman 1.2
BP★ Ugueth Urbina 41 · Anthony Telford 18 · Steve Kline 16 · Guillermo Mota 3 · Scott Strickland 2 · Mel Rojas 1 · J.D. Smart 0 · Ted Lilly 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1999 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Vladimir Guerrero 24 arb 1604.5 1.1 +4.6
Dustin Hermanson 26 arb 343.4 2.1 +2.2
Rondell White 27 FA-elig 1383.1 3.0 +0.9
Javier Vazquez 22 pre-arb 262.7 0.2 +3.2
Miguel Batista 28 FA-elig 392.3 0.2 +2.6
Ugueth Urbina 25 arb 712.2 2.2 +0.5
Carl Pavano 23 pre-arb 191.8 0.2 +2.0
Anthony Telford 33 FA-elig 791.7 0.3 +1.9
Jose Vidro 24 pre-arb 1401.5 0.2 +1.7
Mike Thurman 25 pre-arb 291.2 0.2 +1.3
Chris Widger 28 arb 1240.9 0.9 +0.2
Dan Smith 23 pre-arb 200.9 0.2 +0.9
Orlando Merced 32 FA-elig 930.9 0.6 +0.5
Steve Kline 26 pre-arb 820.6 0.3 +0.4
Bobby Ayala↔ CHC 29 – 530.5 – –
Peter Bergeron 21 – 160.5 – –
Orlando Cabrera 24 pre-arb 1040.4 0.2 +0.3
Fernando Seguignol 24 pre-arb 350.3 0.2 +0.2
J.D. Smart 25 – 290.2 – –
Guillermo Mota 25 pre-arb 510.2 0.2 +0.0
Jeremy Powell 23 pre-arb 170.2 0.2 -0.0
Tony Armas 21 – 10.1 – –
James Mouton 30 arb 950.1 0.2 -0.1
Trace Coquillette 25 – 170.1 – –
Scott Strickland 23 pre-arb 170.0 0.2 -0.1
Darron Cox 31 pre-arb 150.0 0.2 -0.2
Mike Mordecai 31 arb 109-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Robert Machado 26 arb 17-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Mel Rojas↔ DET 32 FA-elig 3-0.0 1.1 -1.1
Michael Barrett 22 pre-arb 126-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Chris Stowers 24 – 4-0.1 – –
Mike Maddux↔ LAD 37 FA-elig 4-0.1 0.0 -0.1
Mike Johnson 23 – 3-0.1 – –
Ted Lilly 23 – 9-0.1 – –
Geoff Blum 26 pre-arb 45-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Terry Jones 28 arb 17-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Ryan McGuire 27 pre-arb 88-0.2 0.2 -0.5
Jose Fernandez 24 – 8-0.2 – –
Rick DeHart 29 – 3-0.2 – –
Shayne Bennett 27 pre-arb 5-0.3 0.2 -0.6
Manny Martinez 28 arb 137-0.4 0.2 -0.7
Wilton Guerrero 24 arb 132-0.8 0.3 -1.3
Brad Fullmer 24 pre-arb 100-0.9 0.3 -1.4
Shane Andrews↔ CHC 27 arb 98-1.2 1.0 -2.5

Key additions (new vs 1998)

PlayerfWAR
Dan Smith0.9
Orlando Merced0.9
Bobby Ayala0.5
Peter Bergeron0.5
J.D. Smart0.2
Guillermo Mota0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 1998)

Player1998 fWAR
Carlos Perez3.3
Bob Henley1.2
Trey Moore1.1
F.P. Santangelo0.8
Derrick May0.2
Tim Young0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1999 payroll
$17.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 1999, 1999–2005. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Rondell White276.000$3.0M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Mel Rojas329.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Orlando Merced329.000$560kFREE AGENT
Anthony Telford339.000$320k$700k$1.2MFREE AGENT
Miguel Batista287.000$250k$253kFREE AGENT
Mike Maddux3713.000$46kFREE AGENT
Bobby Ayala297.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Ugueth Urbina254.000$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Hermanson264.000$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Vladimir Guerrero243.000$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Andrews274.000$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Widger284.000$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilton Guerrero243.000$340kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Mordecai315.000$325kFREE AGENT
James Mouton305.000$250kFREE AGENT
Manny Martinez283.000$225kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terry Jones283.000$215kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Machado263.000$200kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Brad Fullmer242.000$270kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Kline262.000$260kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Vazquez221.000$235kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shayne Bennett272.000$230kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Orlando Cabrera242.000$225kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Vidro242.000$225kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Pavano231.000$225kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan McGuire272.000$225kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Thurman252.000$212kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Seguignol241.000$202kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Powell231.000$201kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Barrett221.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geoff Blum260.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Smith230.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Mota250.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darron Cox310.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Strickland230.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick DeHart292.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Johnson232.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Armas210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Peter Bergeron210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trace Coquillette250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Fernandez24–—
Ted Lilly230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.D. Smart25–—
Chris Stowers24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 1999; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.