NYY⇄WSN

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$16.0M net +0.6

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $37M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 5.0 ± 5 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2000 odds 35% → 32% (-3.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake WestbrookP·22y·R/R

+$10.5M+$10.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 3.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#21 overall draft pick → 0.54/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.54/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Christian ParkerP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#100 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ted LillyP·24y·L/L

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

Composite #66.0 pedigree (Baseball America #66 (1999)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net −$16.0M net -0.6

received +$22.4M+$22.4M ± $31M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 3.2 ± 4 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Hideki IrabuP·31y·R/R

+$22.1M+$22.1M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 3.2± 4 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.06/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.77 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.