RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Murray Cook

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.94× league · TAB +0.7
+0.7TAB — talent above budget10th/26
-2.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/26
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/26
-5.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/26
33%dead money %11th/26
0.484win %14th/26
34.1roster fWAR9th/26
-0surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/26
$11Mpayroll $M14th/26

Roster

CFMitch Webster 118GHerm Winningham 56GGeorge Wright 29G
LFTim Raines Sr. 147GGeorge Wright 20GJim Wohlford 10G
RFAndre Dawson 127GMitch Webster 44GGeorge Wright 30G
SSHubie Brooks 80GLuis Rivera 55GTom Foley 54G
2BVance Law 94GAl Newman 59GTom Foley 26G
3BTim Wallach 132GWayne Krenchicki 24GTom Foley 16G
1BAndres Galarraga 102GWayne Krenchicki 41GWallace Johnson 27G
STARTERSFloyd Youmans 3.7WARJay Tibbs 2.8WARBryn Smith 2.3WARAndy McGaffigan 1.6WARBob Sebra 1.4WAR
CDann Bilardello 77GMike Fitzgerald 71GTom Nieto 30G
BULLPEN★ Jeff Reardon 35svTim Burke 0hBob McClure 0hBert Roberge 0hJeff Parrett 0hRandy St. Claire 0hGeorge Riley 0hDave Tomlin 0h
CDann Bilardello 77 · Mike Fitzgerald 71 · Tom Nieto 30
1BAndres Galarraga 102 · Wayne Krenchicki 41 · Wallace Johnson 27
2BVance Law 94 · Al Newman 59 · Tom Foley 26
3BTim Wallach 132 · Wayne Krenchicki 24 · Tom Foley 16
SSHubie Brooks 80 · Luis Rivera 55 · Tom Foley 54
LFTim Raines Sr. 147 · George Wright 20 · Jim Wohlford 10
CFMitch Webster 118 · Herm Winningham 56 · George Wright 29
RFAndre Dawson 127 · Mitch Webster 44 · George Wright 30
SPFloyd Youmans 3.7 · Jay Tibbs 2.8 · Bryn Smith 2.3 · Andy McGaffigan 1.6 · Bob Sebra 1.4
BP★ Jeff Reardon 35 · Tim Burke 0 · Bob McClure 0 · Bert Roberge 0 · Jeff Parrett 0 · Randy St. Claire 0 · George Riley 0 · Dave Tomlin 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1986 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Tim Raines Sr. 26 FA-elig 1516.0 1.5 +0.3
Hubie Brooks 29 FA-elig 804.2 0.7 +0.6
Mitch Webster 27 arb 1514.1 0.1 +1.1
Floyd Youmans 22 pre-arb 333.7 0.1 +1.0
Jay Tibbs 24 pre-arb 362.8 0.1 +0.7
Tim Wallach 28 FA-elig 1342.6 0.7 +0.1
Andre Dawson 31 FA-elig 1302.4 1.0 -0.3
Bryn Smith 30 arb 302.3 0.7 -0.0
Andy McGaffigan 29 arb 501.6 0.2 +0.3
Bob Sebra 24 pre-arb 181.4 0.1 +0.4
Mike Fitzgerald 25 arb 731.0 0.1 +0.1
Bob McClure↔ MIL 34 FA-elig 521.0 0.4 -0.1
Vance Law 29 FA-elig 1120.9 0.5 -0.2
Dennis Martinez↔ BAL 32 FA-elig 190.9 0.5 -0.2
Dan Schatzeder↔ PHI 31 FA-elig 330.8 0.2 +0.0
Tom Foley↔ PHI 26 arb 640.7 0.1 +0.1
Tim Burke 27 pre-arb 680.6 0.2 +0.0
Joe Hesketh 27 pre-arb 150.4 0.2 -0.0
Andres Galarraga 25 pre-arb 1050.4 0.1 +0.1
Sergio Valdez 21 – 50.3 – –
Bob Owchinko 31 – 30.3 – –
Randy St. Claire 25 – 110.3 – –
Curt Brown 26 – 60.2 – –
Bert Roberge 31 FA-elig 210.1 0.1 -0.1
Wallace Johnson 29 arb 610.1 0.1 -0.0
Jeff Reardon 30 FA-elig 620.0 0.8 -0.8
Jim Wohlford 35 FA-elig 700.0 0.3 -0.3
Wilfredo Tejada 23 – 10-0.0 – –
Jeff Parrett 24 – 12-0.1 – –
George Riley 29 – 10-0.1 – –
Dave Tomlin 37 FA-elig 7-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Bill Moore 25 – 6-0.1 – –
Casey Candaele 25 – 30-0.1 – –
Jason Thompson 31 FA-elig 30-0.1 1.0 -1.0
Wayne Krenchicki 31 FA-elig 101-0.2 0.3 -0.4
Randy Hunt 26 pre-arb 21-0.3 0.1 -0.1
Rene Gonzales 25 – 11-0.3 – –
Luis Rivera 22 pre-arb 55-0.4 0.1 -0.2
Dann Bilardello 27 arb 79-0.4 0.1 -0.2
Herm Winningham 24 pre-arb 90-0.6 0.1 -0.3
Tom Nieto 25 pre-arb 30-0.7 0.1 -0.3
Al Newman 26 pre-arb 95-0.7 0.1 -0.3
George Wright↔ TEX 27 – 56-1.0 – –

Key additions (new vs 1985)

PlayerfWAR
Jay Tibbs2.8
Andy McGaffigan1.6
Bob Sebra1.4
Bob McClure1.0
Dennis Martinez0.9
Tom Foley0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 1985)

Player1985 fWAR
Bill Gullickson3.2
David Palmer2.3
Mickey Mahler0.5
Dan Driessen0.4
Steve Rogers0.4
U L Washington0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

1986 payroll
$10.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 1986, 1986–1992. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Tim Raines Sr.267.000$1.5M$1.7M$1.7M$2.1M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Andre Dawson3110.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Thompson3110.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jeff Reardon307.000$850kFREE AGENT
Hubie Brooks296.000$650k$765k$850k$950kFREE AGENT
Tim Wallach286.000$650k$765k$850k$950k$1.2MFREE AGENT$1.9M
Dennis Martinez3210.000$463k$162k$735k$735k$1.4M$3.3M$3.3M
Vance Law296.000$450k$525kFREE AGENT
Bob McClure3411.000$390k$550k$288kFREE AGENT
Jim Wohlford3514.000$350kFREE AGENT
Wayne Krenchicki317.000$320kFREE AGENT
Dan Schatzeder319.000$236kFREE AGENT
Bert Roberge317.000$138kFREE AGENT
Dave Tomlin3714.000$60kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Bryn Smith305.000$700kFREE AGENT
Andy McGaffigan295.000$180kFREE AGENT
Mike Fitzgerald253.000$147kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Foley263.000$130kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Webster273.000$120kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dann Bilardello273.000$80kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wallace Johnson295.000$65kFREE AGENT
George Wright274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Joe Hesketh272.000$170kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Burke271.000$160kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Tibbs242.000$128kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Nieto252.000$90kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Herm Winningham242.000$88kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Floyd Youmans221.000$70kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andres Galarraga251.000$68kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Hunt261.000$65kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Al Newman261.000$62kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bob Sebra241.000$62kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Rivera220.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Brown26–—
Casey Candaele250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rene Gonzales252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Moore25–—
Bob Owchinko31–—
Jeff Parrett240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Riley29–—
Randy St. Claire252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilfredo Tejada23–—
Sergio Valdez210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 1986; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.