STL⇄WSN

STLSTL Dal Maxvill net +$4.0M net +0.7

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $25M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 2.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1986 odds 3% → 4% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Fred Manrique2B·24y·R/R

+$4.7M+$4.7M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 2.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Murray Cook net −$4.0M net -0.7

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $37M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1986 odds 17% → 15% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tom NietoC·25y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $37M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.