TOR⇄SEA

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$1.6M net +0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $8M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2020 odds 2% → 2% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Taijuan WalkerP·27y·B/R

+$2.8M+$2.8M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#43 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

1.00/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$1.6M net -0.4

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2020 odds 2% → 1% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alberto RodriguezP·28y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#543 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.59 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.