RRosternomics
𝕏

Blue Jays TOR

‹ ›

GM: JP Ricciardi

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.75× league · TAB -6.2
-6.2TAB — talent above budget22nd/30
-10.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-5.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/30
30%dead money %18th/30
0.416win %25th/30
24.4roster fWAR22nd/30
-17surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$50Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFVernon Wells 131GReed Johnson 33GAlex Rios 3G
LFReed Johnson 57GFrank Catalanotto 41GGabe Gross 38G
RFAlex Rios 108GReed Johnson 53GHowie Clark 11G
SSChris Gomez 77GChris Woodward 64GRuss Adams 21G
2BOrlando Hudson 133GFrank Menechino 42GDave Berg 4G
3BEric Hinske 153GFrank Menechino 7GChris Gomez 5G
1BCarlos Delgado 120GChris Gomez 19GHowie Clark 11G
STARTERSTed Lilly 2.9WARRoy Halladay 2.7WARDave Bush 1.9WARMiguel Batista 1.5WARJosh Towers 1.1WAR
CGregg Zaun 97GKevin Cash 60GGuillermo Quiroz 15G
DHFrank Catalanotto 26GFrank Menechino 15GCarlos Delgado 8G
BULLPEN★ Jason Frasor 17svVinnie Chulk 12hJustin Speier 7hKerry Ligtenberg 4hKevin Frederick 3hBob File 2hJason Kershner 2hMicheal Nakamura 2h
CGregg Zaun 97 · Kevin Cash 60 · Guillermo Quiroz 15
1BCarlos Delgado 120 · Chris Gomez 19 · Howie Clark 11
2BOrlando Hudson 133 · Frank Menechino 42 · Dave Berg 4
3BEric Hinske 153 · Frank Menechino 7 · Chris Gomez 5
SSChris Gomez 77 · Chris Woodward 64 · Russ Adams 21
LFReed Johnson 57 · Frank Catalanotto 41 · Gabe Gross 38
CFVernon Wells 131 · Reed Johnson 33 · Alex Rios 3
RFAlex Rios 108 · Reed Johnson 53 · Howie Clark 11
DHFrank Catalanotto 26 · Frank Menechino 15 · Carlos Delgado 8
SPTed Lilly 2.9 · Roy Halladay 2.7 · Dave Bush 1.9 · Miguel Batista 1.5 · Josh Towers 1.1
BP★ Jason Frasor 17 · Vinnie Chulk 12 · Justin Speier 7 · Kerry Ligtenberg 4 · Kevin Frederick 3 · Bob File 2 · Jason Kershner 2 · Micheal Nakamura 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Vernon Wells 25 arb 1344.0 0.9 +6.0
Orlando Hudson 26 pre-arb 1353.7 0.3 +6.0
Ted Lilly 28 arb 322.9 1.9 +3.1
Roy Halladay 27 FA-elig 212.7 6.0 -1.3
Carlos Delgado 32 FA-elig 1282.4 19.7 -15.6
Frank Menechino↔ OAK 33 arb 722.0 0.3 +3.2
Alex Rios 23 – 1111.9 – –
Dave Bush 24 – 161.9 – –
Gregg Zaun 33 – 1071.7 – –
Miguel Batista 33 FA-elig 381.5 3.6 -1.0
Josh Towers 27 arb 211.1 0.3 +1.5
Jason Frasor 26 – 630.8 – –
Reed Johnson 27 pre-arb 1410.5 0.3 +0.6
Kerry Ligtenberg 33 FA-elig 570.5 2.0 -1.1
Gustavo Chacin 23 – 20.4 – –
Justin Speier 30 FA-elig 620.4 1.6 -0.9
Terry Adams↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 420.4 1.2 -0.5
Chris Gomez 33 FA-elig 1090.3 0.8 -0.2
Vinnie Chulk 25 – 470.2 0.3 +0.1
Eric Hinske 26 pre-arb 1550.2 0.9 -0.6
Russ Adams 23 – 220.1 – –
Jason Kershner 27 pre-arb 240.1 0.3 -0.1
Brandon League 21 – 30.1 – –
Valerio De Los Santos 31 FA-elig 170.1 0.8 -0.7
Eric Crozier 25 – 14-0.0 – –
Chris Woodward 28 arb 69-0.0 0.8 -0.8
Frank Catalanotto 30 FA-elig 75-0.0 2.3 -2.4
Bob File 27 arb 24-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Gabe Gross 24 – 44-0.1 – –
Kevin Frederick 27 – 22-0.1 – –
Adam Peterson 25 – 3-0.1 – –
Justin Miller 26 – 19-0.1 – –
Bobby Estalella↔ ARI 29 FA-elig 5-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Sean Douglass 25 arb 14-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Kevin Cash 26 pre-arb 60-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Ryan Glynn 29 – 6-0.1 – –
Greg Myers 38 FA-elig 8-0.1 0.9 -1.1
Dave Maurer 29 – 3-0.2 – –
Chad Hermansen 26 – 4-0.2 – –
Micheal Nakamura 27 – 19-0.2 – –
Aquilino Lopez 29 pre-arb 18-0.3 0.3 -0.9
Guillermo Quiroz 22 – 17-0.4 – –
Simon Pond 27 pre-arb 16-0.4 0.3 -0.9
Pat Hentgen 35 FA-elig 18-0.5 2.2 -3.0
Howie Clark 30 – 40-0.5 – –
Josh Phelps↔ CLE 26 arb 79-0.6 0.3 -1.4
Dave Berg 33 FA-elig 58-1.4 0.8 -3.2

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Ted Lilly2.9
Frank Menechino2.0
Alex Rios1.9
Dave Bush1.9
Gregg Zaun1.7
Miguel Batista1.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Kelvim Escobar3.4
Cory Lidle2.4
Mike Bordick1.8
Mark Hendrickson1.8
Shannon Stewart0.7
Doug Davis0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$50.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Carlos Delgado3211.000$19.7MFREE AGENT
Roy Halladay276.000$6.0M$10.5M$12.8M$12.8M$10.0M$14.2MFREE AGENT
Miguel Batista3312.000$3.6M$4.8MFREE AGENT
Frank Catalanotto307.000$2.3M$2.7M$2.7MFREE AGENT
Pat Hentgen3513.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Kerry Ligtenberg337.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Speier306.000$1.6M$1.9M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Terry Adams319.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Greg Myers3817.000$900k$700kFREE AGENT
Valerio De Los Santos316.000$850kFREE AGENT
Dave Berg336.000$800kFREE AGENT
Chris Gomez3311.000$750kFREE AGENT
Bobby Estalella298.000$229kFREE AGENT
Gregg Zaun339.000—$950k$1.0M$3.5M$3.8MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Ted Lilly285.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Vernon Wells255.000$870kFREE AGENT
Chris Woodward285.000$775kFREE AGENT
Josh Towers273.000$340kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank Menechino335.000$339kFREE AGENT
Bob File273.000$310kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Douglass253.000$305kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Phelps264.000$262kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Hermansen265.000—FREE AGENT
Ryan Glynn295.000—FREE AGENT
Dave Maurer294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Eric Hinske262.000$900kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Orlando Hudson262.000$322kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aquilino Lopez291.000$318kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reed Johnson271.000$318kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Kershner272.000$315kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Cash262.000$302kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Simon Pond270.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinnie Chulk251.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Miller262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gustavo Chacin230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Frederick272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Howie Clark30–—
Gabe Gross240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Quiroz220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Rios230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micheal Nakamura27–—
Russ Adams230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Frasor260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Peterson25–—
Dave Bush240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Crozier25–—
Brandon League210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.