TOR⇄LAD

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net −$1.6M net +1.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$32.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 5.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2004 odds 3% → 2% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason FrasorP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$32.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 5.1

Prior

#987 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Dan Evans net +$1.6M net -1.5

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $20M expected surplus · +$33.6M realized received 2.4 ± 2 expected · 3.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2004 odds 57% → 65% (+8.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jayson WerthOF·25y·R/R

+$11.3M+$11.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$33.6M 2.4± 2 exp WARrealized 3.6

Prior

#22 overall draft pick → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.43/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.