RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: Pat Gillick

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.14× league · TAB +8.0
+8.0TAB — talent above budget7th/26
+2.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/26
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/26
-2.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/26
23%dead money %7th/26
0.531win %7th/26
43.9roster fWAR4th/26
-0surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/26
$19Mpayroll $M11th/26

Roster

CFMookie Wilson 133GJunior Félix 28GKenny Williams 22G
LFGeorge Bell 106GKenny Williams 32GGlenallen Hill 27G
RFJunior Félix 99GGlenallen Hill 34GKenny Williams 27G
SSTony Fernández 161GManuel Lee 9GLuis Sojo 5G
2BManuel Lee 112GLuis Sojo 15GTom Lawless 1G
3BKelly Gruber 145GRance Mulliniks 22GLuis Sojo 4G
1BFred McGriff 147GJohn Olerud 18GRance Mulliniks 3G
STARTERSDave Stieb 4.3WARDavid Wells 3.8WARTodd Stottlemyre 2.7WARJimmy Key 2.4WARWillie Blair 0.8WAR
CPat Borders 115GGreg Myers 87GCarlos Diaz 9G
DHJohn Olerud 86GGeorge Bell 36GGlenallen Hill 14G
BULLPEN★ Tom Henke 32svDuane Ward 0hJim Acker 0hJohn Candelaria 0hFrank Wills 0hRick Luecken 0hPaul Kilgus 0hSteve Cummings 0h
CPat Borders 115 · Greg Myers 87 · Carlos Diaz 9
1BFred McGriff 147 · John Olerud 18 · Rance Mulliniks 3
2BManuel Lee 112 · Luis Sojo 15 · Tom Lawless 1
3BKelly Gruber 145 · Rance Mulliniks 22 · Luis Sojo 4
SSTony Fernández 161 · Manuel Lee 9 · Luis Sojo 5
LFGeorge Bell 106 · Kenny Williams 32 · Glenallen Hill 27
CFMookie Wilson 133 · Junior Félix 28 · Kenny Williams 22
RFJunior Félix 99 · Glenallen Hill 34 · Kenny Williams 27
DHJohn Olerud 86 · George Bell 36 · Glenallen Hill 14
SPDave Stieb 4.3 · David Wells 3.8 · Todd Stottlemyre 2.7 · Jimmy Key 2.4 · Willie Blair 0.8
BP★ Tom Henke 32 · Duane Ward 0 · Jim Acker 0 · John Candelaria 0 · Frank Wills 0 · Rick Luecken 0 · Paul Kilgus 0 · Steve Cummings 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1990 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Fred McGriff 26 arb 1535.5 1.4 +1.0
Tony Fernandez 28 FA-elig 1614.9 1.5 +0.7
Kelly Gruber 28 FA-elig 1504.3 1.1 +0.8
Dave Stieb 32 FA-elig 334.3 2.8 -0.9
David Wells 27 arb 433.8 0.3 +1.4
Pat Borders 27 pre-arb 1253.5 0.2 +1.4
Todd Stottlemyre 25 pre-arb 332.7 0.2 +1.0
Jimmy Key 29 FA-elig 272.4 1.5 -0.4
Duane Ward 26 arb 732.1 0.3 +0.6
Mookie Wilson 34 FA-elig 1471.9 1.1 -0.3
Junior Felix 22 pre-arb 1271.6 0.2 +0.6
Tom Henke 32 FA-elig 611.5 1.2 -0.5
John Olerud 21 pre-arb 1111.4 0.1 +0.5
George Bell 30 FA-elig 1421.1 2.0 -1.5
Rance Mulliniks 34 FA-elig 570.8 0.5 -0.1
Willie Blair 24 pre-arb 270.8 0.1 +0.2
Manuel Lee 25 arb 1170.8 0.4 -0.0
Greg Myers 24 arb 870.7 0.1 +0.2
Mark Whiten 23 pre-arb 330.6 0.1 +0.1
Rob Ducey 25 – 190.5 – –
Jim Acker 31 FA-elig 590.3 0.7 -0.6
John Candelaria↔ MIN 36 FA-elig 130.2 0.1 -0.0
Frank Wills 31 FA-elig 440.2 0.2 -0.1
Kenny Williams↔ DET 26 arb 490.1 0.1 -0.0
Al Leiter 24 – 40.1 – –
Tom Quinlan 22 pre-arb 10.1 0.1 -0.1
Tom Gilles 27 – 20.0 – –
Carlos Diaz 25 – 90.0 – –
Jim Eppard 30 – 6-0.0 – –
Bob MacDonald 25 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Bud Black↔ CLE 33 FA-elig 3-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Glenallen Hill 25 pre-arb 84-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Mike Flanagan 38 FA-elig 5-0.1 1.0 -1.1
Rick Luecken↔ ATL 29 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.0
Ozzie Virgil Jr. 33 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.3 -0.3
Paul Kilgus 28 arb 11-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Luis Sojo 25 pre-arb 33-0.2 0.1 -0.2
Tom Lawless 33 FA-elig 15-0.2 0.2 -0.4
Steve Cummings 25 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.1 -0.2
John Cerutti 30 arb 30-0.3 0.8 -0.9
Nelson Liriano↔ MIN 26 arb 50-0.5 0.1 -0.4

Key additions (new vs 1989)

PlayerfWAR
Willie Blair0.8
Mark Whiten0.6
John Candelaria0.2
Kenny Williams0.1
Tom Quinlan0.1
Tom Gilles0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 1989)

Player1989 fWAR
Ernie Whitt2.9
Lloyd Moseby0.5
Mauro Gozzo0.4
Lee Mazzilli0.4
Jose Antonio Nunez0.4
Jesse Barfield0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

1990 payroll
$19.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 1990, 1990–1996. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1990199119921993199419951996
Dave Stieb3211.000$2.8M$3.0M$3.2MFREE AGENT
George Bell309.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Tony Fernandez287.000$1.5MFREE AGENT$1.5M
Jimmy Key296.000$1.5MFREE AGENT$2.3M
Tom Henke328.000$1.2MFREE AGENT$3.4M
Kelly Gruber286.000$1.1M$3.0M$3.6MFREE AGENT
Mookie Wilson3410.000$1.1M$1.6MFREE AGENT
Mike Flanagan3815.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jim Acker317.000$700kFREE AGENT
Rance Mulliniks3413.000$520k$725k$775kFREE AGENT
Ozzie Virgil Jr.3310.000$275kFREE AGENT
Tom Lawless338.000$250kFREE AGENT
Frank Wills317.000$242k$435kFREE AGENT
John Candelaria3615.000$138kFREE AGENT
Bud Black339.000$73kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1990199119921993199419951996
Fred McGriff264.000$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
John Cerutti305.000$762kFREE AGENT
Manuel Lee255.000$380kFREE AGENT
Duane Ward264.000$300kARB 3FREE AGENT
David Wells273.000$275kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Kilgus283.000$242kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nelson Liriano263.000$124kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Myers243.000$105kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kenny Williams264.000$74kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Ducey253.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Eppard303.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Al Leiter243.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1990199119921993199419951996
Pat Borders272.000$180kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Stottlemyre252.000$168kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Felix221.000$155kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Cummings251.000$102kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Sojo250.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willie Blair240.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Whiten230.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Glenallen Hill251.000$100kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Olerud211.000$100kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bob MacDonald250.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Quinlan220.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Luecken291.000$3kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Diaz25–—
Tom Gilles27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 1990; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.