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December 5, 1990

TOR⇄SDP

SDP won this trade +$67.2M surplus TOR won this trade +13.4 WAR
TORTOR Pat Gillick net −$67.2M net +13.4
received −$11.2M−$11.2M ± $28M expected surplus · −$24.0M realized received 7.6 ± 4 expected · 27.8 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1991 odds 40% → 56% (+16 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Roberto Alomar2B·23y·B/R
+$34.2M+$34.2M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$125.6M 6.9± 3 exp WARrealized 20.4
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 3.5/yr over 2.0 seasons
Talent
2.30/yr blended
Horizon
3.0 control yrs
Joe CarterOF·31y·R/R
−$45.4M−$45.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$149.6M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 7.4
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.7/yr over 2.6 seasons
Talent
0.54/yr blended
Horizon
1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline
SDPSDP Jack McKeon net +$67.2M net -13.4
received +$72.8M+$72.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$43.2M realized received 12.2 ± 3 expected · 14.4 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1991 odds 38% → 24% (-13.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Fred McGriff1B·27y·L/L
+$56.9M+$56.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$42.4M 7.5± 2 exp WARrealized 10.4
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 5.6/yr over 2.3 seasons
Talent
3.75/yr blended
Horizon
2.0 control yrs
Tony FernándezSS·29y·B/R
+$16.2M+$16.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 4.7± 2 exp WARrealized 4.0
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 4.5/yr over 2.6 seasons
Talent
3.14/yr blended
Horizon
1.5 control yr

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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