TOR⇄CLE

TORTOR Pat Gillick net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1991 odds 55% → 56% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex SanchezP·25y·R/R

+$7.4M+$7.4M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#17 overall draft pick → 0.58/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.44/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Hank Peters net −$1.6M net -0.2

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $36M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.4 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1991 odds 3% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Willie BlairP·25y·R/R

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $36M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.4± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#289 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.