RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: Pat Gillick

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.99× league · TAB +14.8
+14.8TAB — talent above budget1st/26
+14.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/26
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/26
-2.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/26
8%dead money %1st/26
0.593win %2nd/26
48.9roster fWAR1st/26
+3surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/26
$11Mpayroll $M16th/26

Roster

CFLloyd Moseby 153GJesse Barfield 13GRob Ducey 11G
LFGeorge Bell 148GRick Leach 21GJuan Beníquez 20G
RFJesse Barfield 153GRick Leach 22GJuan Beníquez 8G
SSTony Fernández 146GManuel Lee 26GKelly Gruber 21G
2BGarth Iorg 91GNelson Liriano 37GManuel Lee 27G
3BKelly Gruber 119GRance Mulliniks 96GGarth Iorg 29G
1BWillie Upshaw 146GCecil Fielder 16GFred McGriff 14G
STARTERSJimmy Key 5.6WARJim Clancy 5.0WARDave Stieb 2.5WARMike Flanagan 1.5WARJosé Núñez 0.9WAR
CErnie Whitt 131GCharlie Moore 44GJeffrey DeWillis 13G
DHFred McGriff 76GCecil Fielder 34GJuan Beníquez 25G
BULLPEN★ Tom Henke 34svMark Eichhorn 0hJeff Musselman 0hDavid Wells 0hDuane Ward 0h
CErnie Whitt 131 · Charlie Moore 44 · Jeffrey DeWillis 13
1BWillie Upshaw 146 · Cecil Fielder 16 · Fred McGriff 14
2BGarth Iorg 91 · Nelson Liriano 37 · Manuel Lee 27
3BKelly Gruber 119 · Rance Mulliniks 96 · Garth Iorg 29
SSTony Fernández 146 · Manuel Lee 26 · Kelly Gruber 21
LFGeorge Bell 148 · Rick Leach 21 · Juan Beníquez 20
CFLloyd Moseby 153 · Jesse Barfield 13 · Rob Ducey 11
RFJesse Barfield 153 · Rick Leach 22 · Juan Beníquez 8
DHFred McGriff 76 · Cecil Fielder 34 · Juan Beníquez 25
SPJimmy Key 5.6 · Jim Clancy 5.0 · Dave Stieb 2.5 · Mike Flanagan 1.5 · José Núñez 0.9
BP★ Tom Henke 34 · Mark Eichhorn 0 · Jeff Musselman 0 · David Wells 0 · Duane Ward 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1987 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jimmy Key 26 arb 365.6 0.6 +1.1
George Bell 27 FA-elig 1565.3 1.2 +0.4
Jim Clancy 31 FA-elig 375.0 0.8 +0.6
Tony Fernandez 25 arb 1464.8 0.4 +1.0
Jesse Barfield 27 FA-elig 1594.3 1.5 -0.3
Lloyd Moseby 27 FA-elig 1553.6 0.8 +0.2
Ernie Whitt 35 FA-elig 1353.4 0.8 +0.2
Tom Henke 29 arb 723.3 0.3 +0.6
Rance Mulliniks 31 FA-elig 1242.7 0.5 +0.3
Dave Stieb 29 FA-elig 342.5 1.0 -0.3
Mike Flanagan↔ BAL 35 FA-elig 71.5 0.2 +0.3
Willie Upshaw 30 FA-elig 1501.4 0.9 -0.5
David Wells 24 – 181.4 – –
Fred McGriff 23 pre-arb 1071.3 0.1 +0.3
Jose Antonio Nunez 23 pre-arb 370.9 0.1 +0.2
Mark Eichhorn 26 arb 890.8 0.2 +0.1
Rick Leach 30 FA-elig 980.7 0.3 -0.1
Cecil Fielder 23 pre-arb 820.7 0.1 +0.1
Kelly Gruber 25 arb 1380.6 0.1 +0.1
Nelson Liriano 23 pre-arb 370.5 0.1 +0.1
Joe Johnson 25 – 140.5 – –
Manuel Lee 22 – 560.4 – –
Jeff Musselman 24 pre-arb 680.1 0.1 -0.0
Rob Ducey 22 – 340.1 – –
Duane Ward 23 – 120.1 – –
Jeffrey DeWillis 22 – 130.1 – –
Juan Beniquez↔ KCR 37 – 390.0 – –
Alexis Infante 25 – 10.0 – –
Gary Lavelle↔ OAK 38 FA-elig 23-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Lou Thornton 24 – 12-0.1 – –
John Cerutti 27 pre-arb 44-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Don Gordon↔ CLE 27 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.0 -0.0
Greg Myers 21 – 7-0.1 – –
Phil Niekro↔ ATL 48 FA-elig 3-0.2 0.0 -0.1
Matt Stark 22 – 5-0.3 – –
Mike Sharperson↔ LAD 25 – 32-0.3 – –
Charlie Moore 34 FA-elig 51-0.5 0.3 -0.4
Garth Iorg 32 FA-elig 122-0.7 0.4 -0.6

Key additions (new vs 1986)

PlayerfWAR
Mike Flanagan1.5
David Wells1.4
Jose Antonio Nunez0.9
Nelson Liriano0.5
Rob Ducey0.1
Jeffrey DeWillis0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1986)

Player1986 fWAR
Doyle Alexander1.1
Cliff Johnson1.0
Dennis Lamp0.5
Jim Acker0.4
Jeff Hearron0.0
Mickey Mahler-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

1987 payroll
$10.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 1987, 1987–1993. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1987198819891990199119921993
Jesse Barfield276.000$1.5M$1.4M$1.1MFREE AGENT
George Bell276.000$1.2M$1.9M$1.9M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Dave Stieb298.000$1.0M$1.0M$1.5M$2.8M$3.0M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Willie Upshaw309.000$940kFREE AGENT
Jim Clancy3110.000$850k$900kFREE AGENT
Lloyd Moseby277.000$808k$858k$1.4MFREE AGENT
Ernie Whitt3511.000$750k$750k$800kFREE AGENT
Rance Mulliniks3110.000$475k$600k$650k$520k$725k$775kFREE AGENT
Garth Iorg329.000$380kFREE AGENT
Rick Leach306.000$259k$300kFREE AGENT
Charlie Moore3414.000$256kFREE AGENT
Mike Flanagan3512.000$190k$550k$888k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Gary Lavelle3813.000$50kFREE AGENT
Phil Niekro4823.000$11kFREE AGENT
Juan Beniquez3716.000—$400kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc1987198819891990199119921993
Jimmy Key263.000$554kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Fernandez254.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Henke295.000$331kFREE AGENT
Mark Eichhorn265.000$166kFREE AGENT
Kelly Gruber253.000$96kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1987198819891990199119921993
John Cerutti272.000$115kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cecil Fielder232.000$78kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Antonio Nunez230.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nelson Liriano230.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fred McGriff231.000$62kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Musselman241.000$62kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Don Gordon271.000$14kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeffrey DeWillis22–—
Rob Ducey220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexis Infante250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Johnson252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Lee222.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Myers210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Sharperson250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Stark22–—
Lou Thornton24–—
Duane Ward231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Wells240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 1987; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.