RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: Pat Gillick

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.06× league · TAB +7.1
+7.1TAB — talent above budget6th/26
+3.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/26
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars3rd/26
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/26
36%dead money %16th/26
0.531win %9th/26
42.1roster fWAR6th/26
+1surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/26
$12Mpayroll $M10th/26

Roster

CFLloyd Moseby 147GJesse Barfield 18GRon Shepherd 10G
LFGeorge Bell 147GRick Leach 19GRon Shepherd 12G
RFJesse Barfield 147GRick Leach 20GRon Shepherd 11G
SSTony Fernández 163GKelly Gruber 5GManuel Lee 5G
2BDámaso García 105GGarth Iorg 52GManuel Lee 29G
3BRance Mulliniks 110GGarth Iorg 90GKelly Gruber 42G
1BWillie Upshaw 154GCecil Fielder 7GRick Leach 7G
STARTERSJimmy Key 3.4WARJim Clancy 3.1WARJoe Johnson 2.0WARDave Stieb 0.8WARJohn Cerutti 0.4WAR
CErnie Whitt 129GBuck Martinez 78GJeff Hearron 12G
DHCliff Johnson 89GRick Leach 33GCecil Fielder 15G
BULLPEN★ Tom Henke 27svMark Eichhorn 0hDennis Lamp 0hBill Caudill 0hDon Gordon 0hDuane Ward 0hStan Clarke 0hLuis Aquino 0h
CErnie Whitt 129 · Buck Martinez 78 · Jeff Hearron 12
1BWillie Upshaw 154 · Cecil Fielder 7 · Rick Leach 7
2BDámaso García 105 · Garth Iorg 52 · Manuel Lee 29
3BRance Mulliniks 110 · Garth Iorg 90 · Kelly Gruber 42
SSTony Fernández 163 · Kelly Gruber 5 · Manuel Lee 5
LFGeorge Bell 147 · Rick Leach 19 · Ron Shepherd 12
CFLloyd Moseby 147 · Jesse Barfield 18 · Ron Shepherd 10
RFJesse Barfield 147 · Rick Leach 20 · Ron Shepherd 11
DHCliff Johnson 89 · Rick Leach 33 · Cecil Fielder 15
SPJimmy Key 3.4 · Jim Clancy 3.1 · Joe Johnson 2.0 · Dave Stieb 0.8 · John Cerutti 0.4
BP★ Tom Henke 27 · Mark Eichhorn 0 · Dennis Lamp 0 · Bill Caudill 0 · Don Gordon 0 · Duane Ward 0 · Stan Clarke 0 · Luis Aquino 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1986 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jesse Barfield 26 arb 1587.5 0.7 +1.5
Mark Eichhorn 25 arb 694.9 0.1 +1.4
Tony Fernandez 24 arb 1634.5 0.3 +1.1
George Bell 26 arb 1593.6 0.7 +0.3
Tom Henke 28 arb 633.5 0.2 +0.9
Jimmy Key 25 pre-arb 363.4 0.6 +0.5
Jim Clancy 30 FA-elig 343.1 0.7 +0.2
Ernie Whitt 34 FA-elig 1312.9 0.3 +0.5
Lloyd Moseby 26 FA-elig 1522.2 0.7 -0.1
Rance Mulliniks 30 FA-elig 1172.0 0.3 +0.4
Joe Johnson↔ ATL 24 pre-arb 162.0 0.1 +0.6
Willie Upshaw 29 FA-elig 1551.8 0.9 -0.4
Doyle Alexander↔ ATL 35 FA-elig 171.1 0.3 -0.0
Cliff Johnson 38 FA-elig 1071.0 0.7 -0.4
Dave Stieb 28 FA-elig 380.8 1.0 -0.8
Dennis Lamp 33 FA-elig 400.5 0.6 -0.4
John Cerutti 26 pre-arb 340.4 0.1 +0.0
Jim Acker↔ ATL 27 arb 230.4 0.2 -0.1
Don Gordon 26 – 140.3 – –
Rick Leach 29 arb 1100.1 0.2 -0.1
Manuel Lee 21 pre-arb 350.1 0.1 -0.0
Jeff Hearron 24 – 120.0 – –
Mickey Mahler↔ TEX 33 – 2-0.0 – –
Garth Iorg 31 FA-elig 137-0.1 0.3 -0.3
Fred McGriff 22 – 3-0.1 – –
Luis Aquino 22 – 7-0.1 – –
Duane Ward↔ ATL 22 – 2-0.1 – –
Jeff Musselman 23 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Buck Martinez 37 FA-elig 81-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Damaso Garcia 29 FA-elig 122-0.1 0.8 -0.8
Bill Caudill 29 FA-elig 40-0.2 1.5 -1.6
Steve Davis 25 – 3-0.2 – –
Stan Clarke 25 – 10-0.5 – –
Cecil Fielder 22 – 34-0.6 – –
Kelly Gruber 24 pre-arb 87-0.9 0.1 -0.4
Ron Shepherd 25 pre-arb 65-1.0 0.1 -0.4

Key additions (new vs 1985)

PlayerfWAR
Mark Eichhorn4.9
Joe Johnson2.0
Don Gordon0.3
Mickey Mahler-0.0
Fred McGriff-0.1
Luis Aquino-0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1985)

Player1985 fWAR
Gary Lavelle0.8
Ron Musselman0.6
Tom Filer0.4
Jeff Burroughs0.4
Steve Nicosia0.1
Mitch Webster-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1986 payroll
$11.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 1986, 1986–1992. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Bill Caudill297.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Dave Stieb287.000$1.0M$1.0M$1.0M$1.5M$2.8M$3.0M$3.2M
Willie Upshaw298.000$940k$940kFREE AGENT
Damaso Garcia298.000$790kFREE AGENT
Lloyd Moseby266.000$732k$808k$858k$1.4MFREE AGENT
Cliff Johnson3814.000$725kFREE AGENT
Jim Clancy309.000$680k$850k$900kFREE AGENT
Dennis Lamp339.000$567kFREE AGENT
Buck Martinez3717.000$347kFREE AGENT
Doyle Alexander3515.000$340kFREE AGENT
Ernie Whitt3410.000$325k$750k$750k$800kFREE AGENT
Garth Iorg318.000$307k$380kFREE AGENT
Rance Mulliniks309.000$256k$475k$600k$650k$520k$725k$775k

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
George Bell265.000$725kFREE AGENT
Jesse Barfield265.000$725kFREE AGENT
Tony Fernandez243.000$275kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Acker273.000$192kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Henke284.000$191kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Leach295.000$162kFREE AGENT
Mark Eichhorn254.000$74kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Jimmy Key252.000$552kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Shepherd252.000$90kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Cerutti261.000$90kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Gruber242.000$88kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Lee211.000$60kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Musselman230.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Johnson241.000$51kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Aquino220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stan Clarke25–—
Steve Davis25–—
Cecil Fielder221.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Don Gordon260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Hearron24–—
Mickey Mahler33–—
Fred McGriff220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Duane Ward220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 1986; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.