KCR⇄TOR

KCRKCR John Schuerholz net +$20.0M net +4.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $48M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 0.6 ± 6 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Luis AquinoP·23y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $48M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 0.6± 6 exp WARrealized 4.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Pat Gillick net −$20.0M net -4.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $7M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Juan BeníquezOF·37y·R/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.91/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.