RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Andrew Friedman

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 6 in this regime · payroll 0.69× league · TAB +14.7
+14.7TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+12.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-3.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
26%dead money %6th/30
0.556win %9th/30
44.4roster fWAR5th/30
+46surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$69Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFB.J. Upton 142GDesmond Jennings 21GSam Fuld 6G
LFDesmond Jennings 111GMatt Joyce 33GBen Francisco 24G
RFMatt Joyce 89GBen Zobrist 71GBen Francisco 29G
SSElliot Johnson 100GBen Zobrist 47GSean Rodríguez 47G
2BBen Zobrist 58GRyan Roberts 54GSean Rodríguez 37G
3BRyan Roberts 78GJeff Keppinger 50GEvan Longoria 50G
1BCarlos Pena 153GJeff Keppinger 27GLuke Scott 6G
STARTERSDavid Price 4.3WARJames Shields 3.8WARMatt Moore 2.4WARAlex Cobb 1.8WARJeff Niemann 0.8WAR
CJosé Molina 102GJose Lobatón 66GChris Gimenez 39G
DHLuke Scott 82GEvan Longoria 25GJeff Keppinger 20G
BULLPEN★ Fernando Rodney 48svJoel Peralta 37hJake McGee 20hKyle Farnsworth 7hWade Davis 6hBurke Badenhop 5hJ.P. Howell 3hCesár Ramos 0h
CJosé Molina 102 · Jose Lobatón 66 · Chris Gimenez 39
1BCarlos Pena 153 · Jeff Keppinger 27 · Luke Scott 6
2BBen Zobrist 58 · Ryan Roberts 54 · Sean Rodríguez 37
3BRyan Roberts 78 · Jeff Keppinger 50 · Evan Longoria 50
SSElliot Johnson 100 · Ben Zobrist 47 · Sean Rodríguez 47
LFDesmond Jennings 111 · Matt Joyce 33 · Ben Francisco 24
CFB.J. Upton 142 · Desmond Jennings 21 · Sam Fuld 6
RFMatt Joyce 89 · Ben Zobrist 71 · Ben Francisco 29
DHLuke Scott 82 · Evan Longoria 25 · Jeff Keppinger 20
SPDavid Price 4.3 · James Shields 3.8 · Matt Moore 2.4 · Alex Cobb 1.8 · Jeff Niemann 0.8
BP★ Fernando Rodney 48 · Joel Peralta 37 · Jake McGee 20 · Kyle Farnsworth 7 · Wade Davis 6 · Burke Badenhop 5 · J.P. Howell 3 · Cesár Ramos 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ben Zobrist 31 FA-elig 1575.7 4.5 +10.2
David Price 26 arb 314.3 4.3 +6.8
José Molina 37 FA-elig 1024.0 1.5 +8.7
James Shields 30 FA-elig 333.8 7.0 +2.8
B.J. Upton 27 FA-elig 1463.4 7.0 +1.7
Desmond Jennings 25 pre-arb 1323.2 0.5 +7.8
Jeff Keppinger 32 FA-elig 1152.7 1.5 +5.5
Matt Moore 23 pre-arb 312.4 1.0 +5.1
Fernando Rodney 35 FA-elig 762.2 1.8 +3.8
Evan Longoria 26 arb 742.0 4.5 +0.7
Matt Joyce 27 arb 1241.9 0.5 +4.5
Jake McGee 25 pre-arb 691.9 0.5 +4.4
Alex Cobb 24 pre-arb 231.8 0.5 +4.2
Wade Davis 26 arb 541.0 1.5 +1.2
Joel Peralta 36 FA-elig 771.0 2.2 +0.3
Jeff Niemann 29 arb 80.8 2.8 -0.6
Jeremy Hellickson 25 pre-arb 310.8 0.5 +1.6
Ryan Roberts↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 600.7 0.8 +1.0
Elliot Johnson 28 arb 1230.7 0.5 +1.2
Carlos Pena 34 FA-elig 1600.6 7.2 -5.7
Chris Gimenez 29 pre-arb 420.5 0.5 +0.9
Sam Fuld 30 arb 440.5 0.5 +0.7
Jose Lobatón 27 arb 690.4 0.5 +0.7
Chris Archer 23 – 80.4 0.1 +0.8
Burke Badenhop 29 arb 660.2 1.1 -0.5
Kyle Farnsworth 36 FA-elig 340.2 3.3 -2.7
Sean Rodríguez 27 arb 1120.2 0.5 +0.1
Cesár Ramos 28 pre-arb 170.2 0.5 -0.1
Luke Scott 34 FA-elig 960.0 5.0 -4.9
Brandon Allen↔ OAK 26 arb 70.0 0.3 -0.3
Brandon Guyer 26 pre-arb 30.0 0.5 -0.5
Josh Lueke 27 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Drew Sutton↔ PIT 29 – 18-0.0 – –
Brooks Conrad↔ MIL 32 – 24-0.1 – –
Brandon Gomes 27 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Dane De La Rosa 29 – 5-0.1 – –
Reid Brignac 26 arb 16-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Ben Francisco↔ HOU 30 arb 24-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Will Rhymes 29 pre-arb 47-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Rich Thompson 33 pre-arb 23-0.3 0.5 -1.4
J.P. Howell 29 FA-elig 55-0.4 1.4 -2.4
Stephen Vogt 27 pre-arb 18-0.5 0.5 -1.8
Hideki Matsui 38 FA-elig 34-1.0 0.9 -3.5

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
José Molina4.0
Jeff Keppinger2.7
Fernando Rodney2.2
Ryan Roberts0.7
Carlos Pena0.6
Chris Gimenez0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Casey Kotchman2.3
Johnny Damon1.4
Justin Ruggiano0.4
Juan Cruz0.2
Mike Ekstrom0.0
Russ Canzler0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$68.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Carlos Pena348.133$7.2MFREE AGENT
Kyle Farnsworth3612.100$3.3M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Fernando Rodney358.137$1.8M$2.5MFREE AGENT
José Molina3710.026$1.5M$1.5M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Hideki Matsui389.000$900kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
B.J. Upton275.126$7.0MFREE AGENT
James Shields305.125$7.0MFREE AGENT
Luke Scott345.144$5.0MFREE AGENT
Evan Longoria263.170$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist314.134$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Niemann293.022$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Peralta365.132$2.2MFREE AGENT
Jeff Keppinger325.052$1.5MFREE AGENT
J.P. Howell295.007$1.4MFREE AGENT
Burke Badenhop293.116$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elliot Johnson283.068$486kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Francisco304.049$450kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Conrad323.078—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
David Price262.164$4.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Davis262.032$1.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Moore230.017$1.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Roberts312.150$844kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Joyce272.123$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Rodríguez272.133$493kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reid Brignac262.070$491kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hellickson251.045$490kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Fuld301.140$489kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Desmond Jennings250.101$487kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake McGee250.127$484kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Lobatón270.138$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Thompson332.047$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Gimenez292.041$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Guyer260.031$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Gomes270.112$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lueke270.109$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Cobb240.093$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesár Ramos281.086$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Rhymes290.134$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Vogt270.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Allen260.141$338kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Archer230.000$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Sutton292.074—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dane De La Rosa291.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.