PHI⇄TBR

PHIPHI Ruben Amaro net +$2.4M net +0.3

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2012 odds 46% → 48% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyle HudsonOF·25y·L/L

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#116 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -4.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net −$2.4M net -0.3

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2012 odds 68% → 67% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rich ThompsonOF·33y·L/R

−$1.2M−$1.2M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#178 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs × 0.36 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.