RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Andrew Friedman

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.48× league · TAB +19.1
+19.1TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+18.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-6.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/30
32%dead money %13th/30
0.562win %7th/30
44.3roster fWAR6th/30
+63surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$46Mpayroll $M28th/30

2011: made playoffs · 91–71. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFB.J. Upton 151GDesmond Jennings 8GSam Fuld 7G
LFSam Fuld 75GDesmond Jennings 53GJustin Ruggiano 27G
RFMatt Joyce 126GBen Zobrist 38GBrandon Guyer 11G
SSReid Brignac 91GSean Rodríguez 60GElliot Johnson 52G
2BBen Zobrist 131GSean Rodríguez 48GElliot Johnson 9G
3BEvan Longoria 130GSean Rodríguez 30GDan Johnson 3G
1BCasey Kotchman 146GDan Johnson 21GFelipe López 6G
STARTERSDavid Price 4.8WARJames Shields 4.7WARJeremy Hellickson 2.0WARJeff Niemann 1.7WARWade Davis 1.5WAR
CKelly Shoppach 86GJohn Jaso 82GRobinson Chirinos 19G
DHJohnny Damon 135GManny Ramirez 4GDan Johnson 3G
BULLPEN★ Kyle Farnsworth 25svJoel Peralta 19hJ.P. Howell 10hJuan Cruz 6hBrandon Gomes 5hJake McGee 4hCesár Ramos 3hAdam Russell 2h
CKelly Shoppach 86 · John Jaso 82 · Robinson Chirinos 19
1BCasey Kotchman 146 · Dan Johnson 21 · Felipe López 6
2BBen Zobrist 131 · Sean Rodríguez 48 · Elliot Johnson 9
3BEvan Longoria 130 · Sean Rodríguez 30 · Dan Johnson 3
SSReid Brignac 91 · Sean Rodríguez 60 · Elliot Johnson 52
LFSam Fuld 75 · Desmond Jennings 53 · Justin Ruggiano 27
CFB.J. Upton 151 · Desmond Jennings 8 · Sam Fuld 7
RFMatt Joyce 126 · Ben Zobrist 38 · Brandon Guyer 11
DHJohnny Damon 135 · Manny Ramirez 4 · Dan Johnson 3
SPDavid Price 4.8 · James Shields 4.7 · Jeremy Hellickson 2.0 · Jeff Niemann 1.7 · Wade Davis 1.5
BP★ Kyle Farnsworth 25 · Joel Peralta 19 · J.P. Howell 10 · Juan Cruz 6 · Brandon Gomes 5 · Jake McGee 4 · Cesár Ramos 3 · Adam Russell 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ben Zobrist 30 arb 1566.4 4.7 +10.9
Evan Longoria 25 arb 1336.3 2.0 +13.5
David Price 25 arb 344.8 2.1 +9.7
James Shields 29 arb 334.7 4.2 +7.3
B.J. Upton 26 FA-elig 1533.8 4.8 +4.4
Matt Joyce 26 arb 1413.6 0.4 +8.4
Desmond Jennings 24 pre-arb 632.5 0.4 +5.6
Casey Kotchman 28 arb 1462.3 0.8 +4.9
Sean Rodríguez 26 arb 1312.1 0.4 +4.8
Jeremy Hellickson 24 pre-arb 292.0 0.4 +4.4
Sam Fuld 29 arb 1051.8 0.4 +3.9
Jeff Niemann 28 arb 231.7 0.9 +3.3
Wade Davis 25 pre-arb 301.5 0.4 +3.2
Johnny Damon 37 FA-elig 1501.4 5.2 -1.7
Kyle Farnsworth 35 FA-elig 631.0 2.6 -0.2
Joel Peralta 35 FA-elig 711.0 0.9 +1.5
Alex Cobb 23 – 90.9 0.4 +1.9
Kelly Shoppach 31 FA-elig 870.5 3.0 -1.9
Elliot Johnson 27 arb 700.4 0.4 +0.6
Justin Ruggiano 29 pre-arb 460.4 0.4 +0.6
Matt Moore 22 – 30.4 0.4 +0.5
Brandon Gomes 26 – 400.3 0.4 +0.4
Brandon Guyer 25 – 150.3 0.4 +0.4
Juan Cruz 32 FA-elig 560.2 0.8 -0.3
Alex Torres 23 – 40.0 0.4 -0.3
Jose Lobatón 26 pre-arb 150.0 0.4 -0.3
Mike Ekstrom 27 – 10.0 – –
Russ Canzler 25 pre-arb 30.0 0.4 -0.4
Dane De La Rosa 28 – 70.0 – –
Jay Buente↔ MIA 27 – 1-0.0 – –
Rob Delaney 26 – 4-0.1 – –
Cesár Ramos 27 pre-arb 59-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Jake McGee 24 pre-arb 37-0.1 0.4 -0.8
Adam Russell 28 arb 36-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Manny Ramirez 39 FA-elig 5-0.3 2.0 -2.8
Felipe Lopez↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 32-0.4 0.2 -1.1
J.P. Howell 28 FA-elig 46-0.5 1.1 -2.3
Robinson Chirinos 27 – 20-0.6 0.1 -1.4
Andy Sonnanstine 28 arb 15-0.8 0.9 -2.9
Dan Johnson 31 FA-elig 31-0.9 1.0 -3.1
John Jaso 27 arb 89-1.1 0.4 -3.1
Reid Brignac 25 arb 92-1.1 0.4 -3.1

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Casey Kotchman2.3
Sam Fuld1.8
Johnny Damon1.4
Kyle Farnsworth1.0
Joel Peralta1.0
Alex Cobb0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Carl Crawford7.7
Matt Garza2.0
Rafael Soriano1.9
Joaquín Benoit1.7
Jason Bartlett1.2
Grant Balfour1.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$45.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Johnny Damon3715.051$5.2MFREE AGENT
Kyle Farnsworth3511.100$2.6M$3.3M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Manny Ramirez3918.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Juan Cruz327.121$850kFREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez318.027$182kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
B.J. Upton264.126$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist303.134$4.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Shields294.125$4.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Shoppach315.021$3.0MFREE AGENT
J.P. Howell284.007$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Johnson314.076$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Peralta354.132$925kARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Sonnanstine284.022$912kARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Kotchman285.144$750kFREE AGENT
Elliot Johnson273.068$415kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Ekstrom273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
David Price251.164$2.1MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Longoria252.170$2.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Niemann282.022$903kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Davis251.032$434kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Rodríguez261.133$429kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Jaso271.032$427kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Joyce261.123$426kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reid Brignac251.070$425kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Russell281.018$421kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hellickson240.045$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Fuld290.140$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesár Ramos270.086$417kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake McGee240.020$415kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Ruggiano290.097$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Guyer250.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Russ Canzler250.051$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Cobb230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Lobatón260.062$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Desmond Jennings240.033$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Torres230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Moore220.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Gomes260.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robinson Chirinos270.000$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dane De La Rosa280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Buente27–—
Rob Delaney26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.