RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Andrew Friedman

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.72× league · TAB +17.4
+17.4TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+6.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-3.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
45%dead money %18th/30
0.519win %15th/30
47.7roster fWAR2nd/30
+48surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$66Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFB.J. Upton 144GGabe Kapler 12GFernando Perez 8G
LFCarl Crawford 154GGabe Kapler 14GBen Zobrist 9G
RFGabe Gross 100GGabe Kapler 66GBen Zobrist 59G
SSJason Bartlett 134GReid Brignac 28GBen Zobrist 13G
2BBen Zobrist 91GAkinori Iwamura 67GWilly Aybar 28G
3BEvan Longoria 151GWilly Aybar 18GJoe Dillon 3G
1BCarlos Pena 133GWilly Aybar 31GChris Richard 13G
STARTERSJames Shields 3.4WARMatt Garza 2.8WARJeff Niemann 2.7WARDavid Price 1.2WARWade Davis 1.0WAR
CDioner Navarro 113GGregg Zaun 83GMichel Hernandez 35G
DHPat Burrell 112GWilly Aybar 21GJoe Dillon 8G
BULLPEN★ J.P. Howell 17svGrant Balfour 18hDan Wheeler 16hRuss Springer 14hBrian Shouse 10hRandy Choate 9hLance Cormier 6hJeff Bennett 2h
CDioner Navarro 113 · Gregg Zaun 83 · Michel Hernandez 35
1BCarlos Pena 133 · Willy Aybar 31 · Chris Richard 13
2BBen Zobrist 91 · Akinori Iwamura 67 · Willy Aybar 28
3BEvan Longoria 151 · Willy Aybar 18 · Joe Dillon 3
SSJason Bartlett 134 · Reid Brignac 28 · Ben Zobrist 13
LFCarl Crawford 154 · Gabe Kapler 14 · Ben Zobrist 9
CFB.J. Upton 144 · Gabe Kapler 12 · Fernando Perez 8
RFGabe Gross 100 · Gabe Kapler 66 · Ben Zobrist 59
DHPat Burrell 112 · Willy Aybar 21 · Joe Dillon 8
SPJames Shields 3.4 · Matt Garza 2.8 · Jeff Niemann 2.7 · David Price 1.2 · Wade Davis 1.0
BP★ J.P. Howell 17 · Grant Balfour 18 · Dan Wheeler 16 · Russ Springer 14 · Brian Shouse 10 · Randy Choate 9 · Lance Cormier 6 · Jeff Bennett 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ben Zobrist 28 arb 1528.7 0.4 +20.3
Evan Longoria 23 pre-arb 1577.2 0.6 +16.6
Carl Crawford 27 FA-elig 1565.9 8.2 +5.9
Jason Bartlett 29 arb 1375.3 2.0 +10.6
James Shields 27 arb 333.4 1.5 +6.5
Carlos Pena 31 FA-elig 1352.8 8.0 -1.3
Matt Garza 25 arb 322.8 0.4 +6.2
Jeff Niemann 26 pre-arb 312.7 1.3 +5.2
B.J. Upton 24 arb 1442.3 0.4 +5.2
Gregg Zaun↔ BAL 38 FA-elig 341.2 0.6 +2.3
David Price 23 pre-arb 231.2 0.8 +2.0
Wade Davis 23 pre-arb 61.0 0.4 +2.1
Akinori Iwamura 30 pre-arb 691.0 3.2 -0.9
Scott Kazmir↔ ANA 25 arb 200.9 4.6 -2.4
Gabe Kapler 33 FA-elig 990.9 1.0 +1.1
J.P. Howell 26 arb 690.7 0.4 +1.3
Grant Balfour 31 FA-elig 730.7 1.4 +0.3
Gabe Gross 29 arb 1150.6 1.3 +0.2
Dioner Navarro 25 arb 1150.3 2.1 -1.4
Reid Brignac 23 pre-arb 310.3 0.4 +0.3
Willy Aybar 26 arb 1050.3 1.0 -0.3
Lance Cormier 28 arb 530.2 0.7 -0.2
Joe Dillon 33 – 150.2 – –
Randy Choate 33 FA-elig 610.2 0.4 -0.0
Andy Sonnanstine 26 pre-arb 250.1 0.4 -0.2
Dan Wheeler 31 FA-elig 690.1 3.2 -3.0
Chad Bradford 34 FA-elig 200.1 3.7 -3.5
Jason Isringhausen 36 FA-elig 90.0 0.8 -0.7
Winston Abreu↔ CLE 32 – 20.0 – –
Dale Thayer 28 pre-arb 11-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Shawn Riggans 28 arb 7-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Michel Hernandez 30 – 35-0.1 – –
Russ Springer↔ OAK 40 FA-elig 26-0.2 1.2 -1.6
Matt Joyce 24 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Jeff Bennett↔ ATL 29 arb 11-0.3 0.1 -0.8
Fernando Perez 26 pre-arb 18-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Brian Shouse 40 FA-elig 45-0.3 1.4 -2.0
Troy Percival 39 FA-elig 14-0.3 4.4 -5.2
Chris Richard 35 – 13-0.3 – –
Joe Nelson 34 FA-elig 42-0.5 1.3 -2.4
Pat Burrell 32 FA-elig 122-0.7 7.0 -8.8

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Gregg Zaun1.2
Wade Davis1.0
Gabe Kapler0.9
Lance Cormier0.2
Joe Dillon0.2
Randy Choate0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Eric Hinske2.0
Edwin Jackson1.5
Trever Miller0.6
Cliff Floyd0.6
Rocco Baldelli0.3
Mike DiFelice0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$66.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Carl Crawford277.000$8.2M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Pena318.000$8.0M$10.1MFREE AGENT$7.2M
Pat Burrell329.000$7.0M$7.2MFREE AGENT
Troy Percival3914.000$4.4MFREE AGENT
Chad Bradford3411.000$3.7MFREE AGENT
Dan Wheeler3110.000$3.2M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Grant Balfour318.000$1.4M$2.0MFREE AGENT$4.0M$7.0M
Brian Shouse4016.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Joe Nelson348.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Russ Springer4017.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Gabe Kapler3311.000$1.0M$1.1MFREE AGENT
Jason Isringhausen3614.000$750kFREE AGENT
Gregg Zaun3814.000$567kFREE AGENT
Randy Choate339.000$400k$700kFREE AGENT
Chris Richard359.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Scott Kazmir255.000$4.6MFREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro255.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Jason Bartlett295.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
James Shields273.000$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabe Gross295.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Willy Aybar264.000$975kARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Cormier285.000$675kFREE AGENT
B.J. Upton245.000$435kFREE AGENT
J.P. Howell264.000$434kARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Garza253.000$433kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist283.000$416kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Riggans283.000$414kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Bennett295.000$109kFREE AGENT
Joe Dillon334.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Akinori Iwamura302.000$3.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Niemann261.000$1.3MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Price231.000$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Longoria231.000$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Sonnanstine262.000$430kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Joyce241.000$410kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Perez261.000$403kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reid Brignac231.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dale Thayer280.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Davis230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michel Hernandez30–—
Winston Abreu32–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.