SDP⇄TBR

SDPSDP Jed Hoyer net +$10.4M net +1.3

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.1 ± 1 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2011 odds 5% → 7% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason BartlettSS·31y·R/R

+$9.9M+$9.9M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.1/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

2.12/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net −$10.4M net -1.3

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $45M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized received 4.8 ± 6 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2011 odds 72% → 66% (-6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cesár RamosP·27y·L/L

+$3.0M+$3.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#35 overall draft pick → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.31/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Adam RussellP·28y·R/R

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#179 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.72 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Cole Figueroa2B·24y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#195 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brandon GomesP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#537 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.