RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Chuck Lamar

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.44× league · TAB -0.5
-0.5TAB — talent above budget20th/30
-0.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars20th/30
-7.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag24th/30
41%dead money %23rd/30
0.435win %23rd/30
23.5roster fWAR24th/30
+5surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$29Mpayroll $M29th/30

Roster

CFRocco Baldelli 124GCarl Crawford 30GJoey Gathright 11G
LFCarl Crawford 122GDamian Rolls 16GRobert Fick 13G
RFJosé Cruz Jr. 151GRobert Fick 8GDamian Rolls 5G
SSJulio Lugo 143GB.J. Upton 16GRey Sanchez 4G
2BRey Sanchez 87GGeoff Blum 52GJorge Cantu 33G
3BAubrey Huff 86GGeoff Blum 59GDamian Rolls 19G
1BTino Martinez 114GRandall Simon 47GAubrey Huff 38G
STARTERSMark Hendrickson 2.3WARDewon Brazelton 1.2WARRob Bell 1.0WARScott Kazmir 0.5WARJohn Halama 0.4WAR
CToby Hall 119GBrook Fordyce 51GRobert Fick 3G
DHAubrey Huff 32GRobert Fick 30GTino Martinez 18G
BULLPEN★ Danys Baez 30svTrever Miller 9hTravis Harper 9hJesus Colome 8hLance Carter 7hChad Gaudin 5hBobby Seay 0hFranklin Nunez 0h
CToby Hall 119 · Brook Fordyce 51 · Robert Fick 3
1BTino Martinez 114 · Randall Simon 47 · Aubrey Huff 38
2BRey Sanchez 87 · Geoff Blum 52 · Jorge Cantu 33
3BAubrey Huff 86 · Geoff Blum 59 · Damian Rolls 19
SSJulio Lugo 143 · B.J. Upton 16 · Rey Sanchez 4
LFCarl Crawford 122 · Damian Rolls 16 · Robert Fick 13
CFRocco Baldelli 124 · Carl Crawford 30 · Joey Gathright 11
RFJosé Cruz Jr. 151 · Robert Fick 8 · Damian Rolls 5
DHAubrey Huff 32 · Robert Fick 30 · Tino Martinez 18
SPMark Hendrickson 2.3 · Dewon Brazelton 1.2 · Rob Bell 1.0 · Scott Kazmir 0.5 · John Halama 0.4
BP★ Danys Baez 30 · Trever Miller 9 · Travis Harper 9 · Jesus Colome 8 · Lance Carter 7 · Chad Gaudin 5 · Bobby Seay 0 · Franklin Nunez 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Carl Crawford 22 pre-arb 1525.1 0.3 +8.4
Aubrey Huff 27 arb 1574.5 2.7 +5.1
Julio Lugo 28 arb 1573.7 1.8 +4.6
Mark Hendrickson 30 pre-arb 322.3 0.3 +3.6
Rocco Baldelli 22 pre-arb 1362.2 0.3 +3.4
José Cruz Jr. 30 FA-elig 1532.0 2.5 +0.8
Tino Martinez 36 FA-elig 1381.7 7.5 -4.6
Dewon Brazelton 24 – 221.2 – –
Rey Sanchez 36 FA-elig 911.0 1.0 +0.8
Rob Bell 27 – 241.0 – –
Jorge Cantu 22 – 500.9 – –
Trever Miller 31 FA-elig 600.9 0.7 +0.9
Travis Harper 28 – 520.7 – –
Scott Kazmir 20 – 80.5 – –
Jesus Colome 26 – 330.5 – –
Victor Zambrano↔ NYM 28 arb 230.5 0.3 +0.6
Danys Baez 26 arb 620.5 1.8 -0.9
John Halama 32 FA-elig 340.4 0.6 +0.1
Chad Gaudin 21 pre-arb 280.3 0.3 +0.2
Toby Hall 28 arb 1190.3 0.3 +0.2
Bobby Seay 26 – 210.3 – –
B.J. Upton 19 – 450.2 – –
Jorge Sosa 26 pre-arb 430.2 0.3 -0.0
Dicky Gonzalez 25 – 40.1 – –
Charles Gipson 31 FA-elig 50.1 0.3 -0.2
Midre Cummings 32 – 220.0 – –
Bartolome Fortunato↔ NYM 29 – 30.0 – –
Franklin Nunez 27 – 80.0 – –
Geremi Gonzalez 29 FA-elig 11-0.0 1.7 -1.7
Jason Romano↔ CIN 25 – 4-0.0 – –
Damian Moss 27 arb 5-0.1 0.8 -1.0
John Webb 25 – 4-0.1 – –
Matt Diaz 26 – 10-0.1 – –
José Bautista↔ BAL 23 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Paul Abbott↔ PHI 36 FA-elig 10-0.2 0.3 -0.6
Randall Simon↔ PIT 29 FA-elig 8-0.2 0.1 -0.4
Lance Carter 29 arb 56-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Joey Gathright 23 – 19-0.2 – –
Jason Standridge 25 arb 3-0.3 0.3 -0.9
Brook Fordyce 34 FA-elig 54-0.4 0.7 -1.3
Jonny Gomes 23 – 5-0.4 – –
Todd Ritchie 32 – 4-0.4 – –
Geoff Blum 31 arb 112-0.5 1.5 -2.4
Eduardo Perez 34 FA-elig 13-0.6 0.8 -1.7
Fred McGriff 40 – 27-0.7 – –
Doug Waechter 23 pre-arb 14-0.9 0.3 -1.9
Robert Fick↔ SDP 30 FA-elig 76-1.0 0.7 -2.4
Damian Rolls 26 arb 53-1.3 0.8 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Mark Hendrickson2.3
José Cruz Jr.2.0
Tino Martinez1.7
Rey Sanchez1.0
Jorge Cantu0.9
Trever Miller0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Travis Lee3.4
Marlon Anderson2.2
Jared Sandberg0.8
Antonio Perez0.8
Rey Ordonez0.6
Joe Kennedy0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$29.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Tino Martinez3614.000$7.5MFREE AGENT
José Cruz Jr.307.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Geremi Gonzalez297.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Rey Sanchez3613.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Eduardo Perez3411.000$750k$950kFREE AGENT
Robert Fick306.000$683kFREE AGENT
Trever Miller318.000$650k$1.1MFREE AGENT$1.6M
Brook Fordyce349.000$650kFREE AGENT
John Halama326.000$600kFREE AGENT
Charles Gipson316.000$350kFREE AGENT
Paul Abbott3614.000$300kFREE AGENT
Randall Simon297.000$93kFREE AGENT
Midre Cummings3211.000—FREE AGENT
Fred McGriff4018.000—FREE AGENT
Todd Ritchie327.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Aubrey Huff274.000$2.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Danys Baez263.000$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Lugo284.000$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Geoff Blum315.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Damian Moss273.000$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Damian Rolls264.000$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Toby Hall284.000$320kARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Carter295.000$320kFREE AGENT
Jason Standridge253.000$302kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Zambrano283.000$288kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Harper284.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Seay263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Bell274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Colome263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Rocco Baldelli221.000$320kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Crawford222.000$320kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Hendrickson302.000$315kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Sosa262.000$312kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Gaudin211.000$302kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Waechter231.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Bautista230.000$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dicky Gonzalez25–—
Franklin Nunez270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Romano252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dewon Brazelton242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Cantu220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Webb25–—
B.J. Upton190.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Diaz261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bartolome Fortunato29–—
Scott Kazmir200.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Gathright230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.