LAD⇄TBR

LADLAD Dan Evans net +$3.2M net +0.8

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $33M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 3.7 ± 4 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Antonio Pérez2B/3B·24y·R/R

+$10.9M+$10.9M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 3.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

Composite #52.0 pedigree (Baseball America #52 (2002)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Chuck Lamar net −$3.2M net -0.8

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jason RomanoOF·25y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#39 overall draft pick → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.