RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Chuck Lamar

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.65× league · TAB -4.5
-4.5TAB — talent above budget19th/30
-13.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)28th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-3.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
44%dead money %25th/30
0.389win %29th/30
24.4roster fWAR23rd/30
+0surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$27Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFQuinton McCracken 103GRandy Winn 69GDave Martinez 2G
LFQuinton McCracken 58GMike Kelly 43GRich Butler 39G
RFDave Martinez 85GMike Kelly 51GRich Butler 22G
SSKevin Stocker 110GAaron Ledesma 58GBobby Smith 7G
2BMiguel Cairo 148GAaron Ledesma 19GBobby Smith 6G
3BBobby Smith 97GWade Boggs 78GAaron Ledesma 7G
1BFred McGriff 135GPaul Sorrento 27GScott McClain 5G
STARTERSTony Saunders 3.3WARRolando Arrojo 3.2WARWilson Alvarez 1.3WARBryan Rekar 0.6WARJulio Santana 0.4WAR
CJohn Flaherty 91GMike DiFelice 84G
DHPaul Sorrento 81GWade Boggs 32GBubba Trammell 18G
BULLPEN★ Roberto Hernandez 26svJim Mecir 0hEsteban Yan 0hAlbie Lopez 0hScott Aldred 0hRick White 0hRamón Tatis 0hDan Carlson 0h
CJohn Flaherty 91 · Mike DiFelice 84
1BFred McGriff 135 · Paul Sorrento 27 · Scott McClain 5
2BMiguel Cairo 148 · Aaron Ledesma 19 · Bobby Smith 6
3BBobby Smith 97 · Wade Boggs 78 · Aaron Ledesma 7
SSKevin Stocker 110 · Aaron Ledesma 58 · Bobby Smith 7
LFQuinton McCracken 58 · Mike Kelly 43 · Rich Butler 39
CFQuinton McCracken 103 · Randy Winn 69 · Dave Martinez 2
RFDave Martinez 85 · Mike Kelly 51 · Rich Butler 22
DHPaul Sorrento 81 · Wade Boggs 32 · Bubba Trammell 18
SPTony Saunders 3.3 · Rolando Arrojo 3.2 · Wilson Alvarez 1.3 · Bryan Rekar 0.6 · Julio Santana 0.4
BP★ Roberto Hernandez 26 · Jim Mecir 0 · Esteban Yan 0 · Albie Lopez 0 · Scott Aldred 0 · Rick White 0 · Ramón Tatis 0 · Dan Carlson 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1998 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Tony Saunders 24 pre-arb 313.3 0.2 +3.3
Rolando Arrojo 32 pre-arb 323.2 0.2 +3.2
Fred McGriff 34 FA-elig 1513.1 5.5 -2.2
Miguel Cairo 24 pre-arb 1502.4 0.2 +2.4
Bobby Smith 24 pre-arb 1172.4 0.2 +2.4
Aaron Ledesma 27 arb 951.7 0.2 +1.6
Quinton McCracken 27 arb 1551.5 0.3 +1.4
Wade Boggs 40 FA-elig 1231.4 1.1 +0.4
Jim Mecir 28 arb 681.3 0.2 +1.2
Wilson Alvarez 28 FA-elig 251.3 4.5 -3.1
Kevin Stocker 28 arb 1121.1 1.8 -0.6
Bubba Trammell 26 pre-arb 590.9 0.2 +0.8
Albie Lopez 26 arb 540.7 0.2 +0.6
Bryan Rekar 26 arb 160.6 0.2 +0.5
Julio Santana↔ TEX 25 pre-arb 320.4 0.2 +0.3
Scott Aldred 30 FA-elig 480.4 0.3 +0.2
Mike DiFelice 29 pre-arb 840.4 0.2 +0.2
Roberto Hernandez 33 FA-elig 670.4 4.0 -3.6
Rick White 29 arb 380.3 0.2 +0.1
Randy Winn 24 pre-arb 1090.3 0.2 +0.1
Dave Martinez 33 FA-elig 900.3 1.5 -1.2
Esteban Yan 23 pre-arb 640.2 0.2 +0.1
Jason Johnson 24 pre-arb 130.2 0.2 +0.1
Rick Gorecki 24 pre-arb 30.2 0.2 -0.0
Jerome Walton 32 – 120.1 – –
Mike Duvall 23 – 30.0 – –
Dave Eiland 31 – 10.0 – –
Brad Pennington 29 – 10.0 – –
Terrell Wade 25 arb 2-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Tim Laker↔ PIT 28 – 3-0.1 – –
Kerry Robinson 24 – 2-0.1 – –
Dan Carlson 28 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Mike Kelly 28 arb 106-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Paul Sorrento 32 FA-elig 137-0.1 2.0 -2.1
Rich Butler 25 pre-arb 72-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Eddie Gaillard 27 – 6-0.2 – –
Matt Ruebel 28 – 7-0.2 – –
Scott McClain 26 – 9-0.3 – –
Ramón Tatis 25 pre-arb 22-0.4 0.2 -0.6
Dave Silvestri 30 – 8-0.5 – –
John Flaherty 30 FA-elig 91-0.6 1.6 -2.2
Dennis Springer 33 arb 29-1.0 0.2 -1.4

Key additions (new vs 1997)

PlayerfWAR
Tony Saunders3.3
Rolando Arrojo3.2
Fred McGriff3.1
Miguel Cairo2.4
Bobby Smith2.4
Aaron Ledesma1.7

Key subtractions (gone from 1997)

Player1997 fWAR
—

Current & Historical Payroll

1998 payroll
$27.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 1998, 1998–2004. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1998199920002001200220032004
Fred McGriff3412.000$5.5M$5.2M$5.9M$4.3MFREE AGENT
Wilson Alvarez289.000$4.5M$4.5MFREE AGENT$8.0M
Roberto Hernandez337.000$4.0M$6.2M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Paul Sorrento329.000$2.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
John Flaherty306.000$1.6M$1.3M$2.9M$3.0M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Dave Martinez3312.000$1.5M$2.0M$712kFREE AGENT
Wade Boggs4016.000$1.1M$750kFREE AGENT
Scott Aldred308.000$275k$306kFREE AGENT
Dave Eiland3110.000—$280k$300kFREE AGENT
Tim Laker286.000—FREE AGENT
Dave Silvestri306.000—FREE AGENT
Jerome Walton329.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc1998199920002001200220032004
Kevin Stocker285.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Quinton McCracken273.000$270kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick White294.000$250kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dennis Springer333.000$245kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albie Lopez265.000$245kFREE AGENT
Mike Kelly284.000$235kARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrell Wade253.000$222kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Mecir283.000$205kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Ledesma273.000$195kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Rekar263.000$190kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Pennington295.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc1998199920002001200220032004
Rolando Arrojo320.000$245kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Saunders241.000$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike DiFelice292.000$210kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Tatis251.000$205kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Gorecki241.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Cairo242.000$195kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Esteban Yan232.000$195kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Santana251.000$181kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bubba Trammell261.000$180kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Carlson282.000$175kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Johnson241.000$170kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Butler251.000$170kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Winn240.000$170kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Smith240.000$170kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Gaillard27–—
Matt Ruebel282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott McClain26–—
Mike Duvall230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kerry Robinson240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 1998; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.