TBR⇄PIT

TBRTBR Chuck Lamar net +$0.8M net +0.2

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.9 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 1999 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff SparksP·27y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

José GuillénOF·23y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

-0.75/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Cam Bonifay net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$3.2M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 1.8 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1999 odds 5% → 5% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Humberto CotaC·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joe OliverC·33y·R/R

+$1.3M−$0.2M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.