TEX⇄STL

TEXTEX Chris Young net +$11.2M net +1.5

received +$19.2M+$19.2M ± $14M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 2.4 ± 2 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2023 odds 80% → 85% (+5.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jordan MontgomeryP·30y·L/L

+$18.1M+$18.1M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 1.9± 1 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.9/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.87/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Chris StrattonP·32y·R/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.31/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$11.2M net -1.5

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $32M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 3.2 ± 4 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2023 odds 16% → 12% (-4.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tekoah RobyP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#86 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Thomas Saggese2B/SS·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#145 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

John KingP·28y·L/L

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#314 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.