DET⇄STL

DETDET Bill Lajoie net −$1.6M net +0.0

received −$6.4M−$6.4M ± $44M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 6 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1990 odds 5% → 5% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim Lindeman1B/OF·28y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

-0.12/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Matt KinzerP·27y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.00/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Dal Maxvill net +$1.6M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $37M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.7 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1990 odds 30% → 31% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pat AustinSS·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#125 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Bill Henderson

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Marcos Betances

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.