RRosternomics
𝕏

Giants SFG

‹ ›

GM: Bobby Evans

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.41× league · TAB -0.7
-0.7TAB — talent above budget17th/30
+0.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-3.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/30
30%dead money %10th/30
0.537win %9th/30
37.8roster fWAR12th/30
-54surplus $M (value vs cost)26th/30
$176Mpayroll $M5th/30

2016: made playoffs · 87–75. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFDenard Span 137GGrégor Blanco 18GGorkys Hernández 14G
LFÁngel Pagán 123GGrégor Blanco 29GJarrett Parker 17G
RFHunter Pence 102GGrégor Blanco 34GMac Williamson 23G
SSBrandon Crawford 155GEduardo Núñez 55GEhire Adrianza 13G
2BJoe Panik 126GKelby Tomlinson 19GRamiro Pena 17G
3BEduardo Núñez 81GConor Gillaspie 45GRubén Tejada 23G
1BBrandon Belt 151GBuster Posey 15GConor Gillaspie 7G
STARTERSMadison Bumgarner 5.3WARJohnny Cueto 4.6WARJeff Samardzija 2.3WARJake Peavy 0.8WARMatt Moore 0.7WAR
CBuster Posey 123GTrevor Brown 60G
DHBuster Posey 5GJarrett Parker 4GTrevor Brown 2G
BULLPEN★ Santiago Casilla 31svWill Smith 23hJavier López 20hHunter Strickland 18hJosh Osich 18hCory Gearrin 15hDerek Law 14hGeorge Kontos 9h
CBuster Posey 123 · Trevor Brown 60
1BBrandon Belt 151 · Buster Posey 15 · Conor Gillaspie 7
2BJoe Panik 126 · Kelby Tomlinson 19 · Ramiro Pena 17
3BEduardo Núñez 81 · Conor Gillaspie 45 · Rubén Tejada 23
SSBrandon Crawford 155 · Eduardo Núñez 55 · Ehire Adrianza 13
LFÁngel Pagán 123 · Grégor Blanco 29 · Jarrett Parker 17
CFDenard Span 137 · Grégor Blanco 18 · Gorkys Hernández 14
RFHunter Pence 102 · Grégor Blanco 34 · Mac Williamson 23
DHBuster Posey 5 · Jarrett Parker 4 · Trevor Brown 2
SPMadison Bumgarner 5.3 · Johnny Cueto 4.6 · Jeff Samardzija 2.3 · Jake Peavy 0.8 · Matt Moore 0.7
BP★ Santiago Casilla 31 · Will Smith 23 · Javier López 20 · Hunter Strickland 18 · Josh Osich 18 · Cory Gearrin 15 · Derek Law 14 · George Kontos 9

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Buster Posey 29 FA-elig 1466.7 20.0 +1.6
Madison Bumgarner 26 FA-elig 365.3 9.8 +7.3
Johnny Cueto 30 FA-elig 324.6 15.8 -0.8
Brandon Crawford 29 arb 1554.1 6.0 +7.2
Brandon Belt 28 arb 1563.7 6.2 +5.8
Jeff Samardzija 31 FA-elig 342.3 10.8 -3.2
Joe Panik 25 pre-arb 1271.8 0.5 +5.3
Ángel Pagán 34 FA-elig 1291.4 11.2 -6.6
Hunter Pence 33 FA-elig 1061.3 18.5 -14.3
Eduardo Núñez↔ MIN 29 FA-elig 501.1 0.5 +2.9
Derek Law 25 – 611.0 0.5 +2.7
Matt Duffy↔ TBR 25 pre-arb 700.9 0.4 +2.5
Kelby Tomlinson 26 pre-arb 520.8 0.5 +2.2
Jake Peavy 35 FA-elig 310.8 15.0 -12.3
Matt Moore↔ TBR 27 arb 120.7 1.8 +0.6
Hunter Strickland 27 pre-arb 720.7 0.5 +1.6
Will Smith↔ MIL 26 arb 260.6 0.7 +1.2
Denard Span 32 FA-elig 1430.6 5.0 -3.1
Cory Gearrin 30 arb 560.5 0.6 +1.2
Conor Gillaspie 28 arb 1010.5 0.5 +1.1
Gorkys Hernández 28 pre-arb 260.4 0.1 +1.1
Jarrett Parker 27 pre-arb 630.3 0.3 +0.8
Mac Williamson 25 pre-arb 540.3 0.4 +0.6
Ty Blach 25 – 40.3 0.1 +0.8
George Kontos 31 arb 570.1 1.1 -0.7
Ramiro Pena 30 arb 300.1 0.1 +0.3
Sergio Romo 33 FA-elig 400.1 9.0 -8.5
Joe Nathan↔ CHC 41 FA-elig 70.1 0.7 -0.3
Santiago Casilla 35 FA-elig 620.1 6.5 -6.2
Albert Suárez 26 – 220.1 0.3 -0.1
Steven Okert 24 – 160.1 0.1 +0.1
Rubén Tejada↔ STL 26 FA-elig 130.0 0.5 -0.4
Matt Reynolds 31 arb 8-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Grant Green 28 pre-arb 18-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Vin Mazzaro 29 arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Chris Stratton 25 – 7-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Chris Heston 28 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Gordon Beckham↔ ATL 29 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Mike Broadway 29 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Matt Cain 31 FA-elig 21-0.2 21.0 -21.7
Ehire Adrianza 26 arb 40-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Trevor Brown 24 pre-arb 75-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Grégor Blanco 32 FA-elig 106-0.6 3.9 -5.9
Javier López 38 FA-elig 68-0.7 5.0 -7.3
Josh Osich 27 pre-arb 59-1.2 0.5 -4.3

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Johnny Cueto4.6
Jeff Samardzija2.3
Eduardo Núñez1.1
Derek Law1.0
Matt Moore0.7
Will Smith0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Norichika Aoki1.2
Marlon Byrd0.6
Tim Lincecum0.4
Tim Hudson0.4
Alejandro De Aza0.1
Andrew Susac0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$176.5M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Matt Cain3111.038$21.0MFREE AGENT
Hunter Pence338.156$18.5MFREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto308.000$15.8MFREE AGENT
Jake Peavy3513.101$15.0MFREE AGENT
Ángel Pagán349.144$11.2MFREE AGENT
Jeff Samardzija316.028$10.8MFREE AGENT
Sergio Romo337.097$9.0MFREE AGENT
Santiago Casilla358.148$6.5MFREE AGENT
Denard Span327.111$5.0MFREE AGENT
Javier López3810.167$5.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Nathan4114.120$700kFREE AGENT
Matt Reynolds316.000$89kFREE AGENT
Gordon Beckham296.123$43kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Buster Posey295.161$20.0MFREE AGENT
Madison Bumgarner265.127$9.8MFREE AGENT
Brandon Belt284.128$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Crawford294.094$6.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Grégor Blanco325.164$3.9MFREE AGENT
Matt Moore274.000$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Smith264.000$724kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rubén Tejada264.171$542kARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Núñez294.090$523kARB 3FREE AGENT
Conor Gillaspie283.036$455kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramiro Pena304.089$139kARB 3FREE AGENT
Vin Mazzaro293.101$17kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
George Kontos312.171$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Gearrin302.136$550kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Panik251.100$545kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Heston281.140$530kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Strickland270.163$518kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Osich270.094$512kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ehire Adrianza261.131$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelby Tomlinson260.063$512kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Brown241.019$508kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Law250.000$474kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Duffy250.021$413kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mac Williamson250.019$360kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albert Suárez260.000$347kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrett Parker270.036$291kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Okert240.000$133kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gorkys Hernández280.144$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Blach250.000$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Stratton250.000$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grant Green281.033$78kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Broadway291.060$31kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Giants 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.