SFG⇄MIN

SFGSFG Bobby Evans net −$0.8M net +0.7

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $12M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2016 odds 25% → 30% (+4.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eduardo Núñez3B/SS·29y·R/R

+$2.8M+$2.8M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Rob Antony net +$0.8M net -0.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2016 odds 3% → 3% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adalberto MejíaP·23y·R/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.