RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: Josh Byrnes

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.66× league · TAB -2.4
-2.4TAB — talent above budget17th/30
-0.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-7.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
46%dead money %24th/30
0.469win %18th/30
26.6roster fWAR22nd/30
+4surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$68Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFAlexi Amarista 87GWill Venable 80GChris Denorfia 41G
LFCarlos Quentin 69GChris Denorfia 58GJesus Guzman 35G
RFChris Denorfia 97GWill Venable 97GKyle Blanks 37G
SSEverth Cabrera 95GRonny Cedeno 76GAlexi Amarista 13G
2BJedd Gyorko 117GLogan Forsythe 34GAlexi Amarista 23G
3BChase Headley 140GJedd Gyorko 13GLogan Forsythe 11G
1BYonder Alonso 92GJesus Guzman 38GKyle Blanks 34G
STARTERSEric Stults 3.4WARAndrew Cashner 3.3WARTyson Ross 2.0WARRobbie Erlin 0.6WARIan Kennedy 0.2WAR
CNick Hundley 112GYasmani Grandal 26GRené Rivera 21G
DHCarlos Quentin 6GMark Kotsay 3GKyle Blanks 2G
BULLPEN★ Huston Street 33svLuke Gregerson 25hDale Thayer 18hNick Vincent 10hTim Stauffer 7hBrad Brach 2hColt Hynes 1hAnthony Bass 0h
CNick Hundley 112 · Yasmani Grandal 26 · René Rivera 21
1BYonder Alonso 92 · Jesus Guzman 38 · Kyle Blanks 34
2BJedd Gyorko 117 · Logan Forsythe 34 · Alexi Amarista 23
3BChase Headley 140 · Jedd Gyorko 13 · Logan Forsythe 11
SSEverth Cabrera 95 · Ronny Cedeno 76 · Alexi Amarista 13
LFCarlos Quentin 69 · Chris Denorfia 58 · Jesus Guzman 35
CFAlexi Amarista 87 · Will Venable 80 · Chris Denorfia 41
RFChris Denorfia 97 · Will Venable 97 · Kyle Blanks 37
DHCarlos Quentin 6 · Mark Kotsay 3 · Kyle Blanks 2
SPEric Stults 3.4 · Andrew Cashner 3.3 · Tyson Ross 2.0 · Robbie Erlin 0.6 · Ian Kennedy 0.2
BP★ Huston Street 33 · Luke Gregerson 25 · Dale Thayer 18 · Nick Vincent 10 · Tim Stauffer 7 · Brad Brach 2 · Colt Hynes 1 · Anthony Bass 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Chase Headley 29 FA-elig 1413.4 8.6 +0.7
Eric Stults 33 FA-elig 373.4 0.5 +8.5
Andrew Cashner 26 arb 343.3 0.5 +8.2
Everth Cabrera 26 arb 952.9 1.3 +6.6
Chris Denorfia 32 FA-elig 1442.9 2.0 +5.7
Will Venable 30 arb 1512.6 2.7 +4.2
Jedd Gyorko 24 pre-arb 1252.4 0.5 +5.8
Tyson Ross 26 arb 362.0 0.5 +4.9
Carlos Quentin 30 FA-elig 821.6 9.5 -5.1
Yasmani Grandal 24 pre-arb 281.3 0.8 +2.7
Luke Gregerson 29 arb 731.2 3.2 +0.0
Nick Vincent 26 pre-arb 451.1 0.3 +2.8
René Rivera 29 pre-arb 230.9 0.2 +2.3
Edinson Volquez↔ LAD 29 FA-elig 270.8 4.7 -2.6
Yonder Alonso 26 arb 970.7 1.1 +0.8
Kyle Blanks 26 arb 880.6 0.6 +1.1
Robbie Erlin 22 – 110.6 0.1 +1.5
Tommy Medica 25 – 190.5 0.1 +1.2
Joe Thatcher↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 500.4 0.9 +0.1
Cody Ransom↔ CHC 37 FA-elig 50.4 0.0 +0.9
Jesus Guzman 29 arb 1260.2 0.5 +0.1
Ronny Cedeno↔ HOU 30 FA-elig 380.2 0.5 +0.1
Sean O'Sullivan 25 pre-arb 70.2 0.1 +0.5
Ian Kennedy↔ ARI 28 FA-elig 100.2 1.3 -0.8
Tim Stauffer 31 FA-elig 430.2 0.5 -0.0
Alexi Amarista 24 pre-arb 1460.1 0.5 -0.2
Dale Thayer 32 arb 690.1 0.5 -0.3
John Baker 32 arb 16-0.0 0.9 -0.9
Chris Robinson 29 – 8-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Miles Mikolas 24 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Brad Brach 27 pre-arb 33-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Thad Weber↔ TOR 28 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Brad Boxberger 25 pre-arb 18-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Rey Fuentes 22 – 23-0.1 – –
Anthony Bass 25 pre-arb 24-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Tommy Layne 28 pre-arb 14-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Nick Hundley 29 arb 114-0.2 3.0 -3.5
Burch Smith 23 – 10-0.3 0.1 -0.8
Colt Hynes 28 pre-arb 22-0.3 0.2 -0.9
Jaff Decker 23 pre-arb 13-0.3 0.1 -0.8
Pedro Ciriaco↔ BOS 27 arb 23-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Cameron Maybin 26 FA-elig 14-0.4 3.0 -4.1
Logan Forsythe 26 pre-arb 75-0.6 0.5 -2.1
Huston Street 29 FA-elig 58-0.7 7.0 -9.0
Clayton Richard 29 arb 14-0.9 5.2 -7.7
Jason Marquis 34 FA-elig 21-1.4 3.0 -6.7
Mark Kotsay 37 FA-elig 104-1.4 1.3 -5.1

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Jedd Gyorko2.4
Tyson Ross2.0
René Rivera0.9
Robbie Erlin0.6
Tommy Medica0.5
Cody Ransom0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Andrew Werner0.3
Eddy Rodriguez0.2
Jeremy Hermida0.1
Ernesto Frieri0.1
Josh Spence0.0
Cory Burns-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$68.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Carlos Quentin306.065$9.5M$9.5MFREE AGENT
Huston Street298.000$7.0M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Marquis3412.012$3.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay3715.018$1.3MFREE AGENT
Ronny Cedeno307.029$491kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Chase Headley294.123$8.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Clayton Richard294.070$5.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Edinson Volquez295.059$4.7MFREE AGENT
Luke Gregerson294.000$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin263.073$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hundley294.059$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Venable303.155$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Denorfia325.041$2.0MFREE AGENT
Ian Kennedy283.124$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Thatcher314.068$938kARB 3FREE AGENT
John Baker325.000$930kFREE AGENT
Kyle Blanks263.032$605kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Stauffer315.007$525kFREE AGENT
Cody Ransom374.008$44kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Everth Cabrera262.144$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonder Alonso261.116$1.1MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yasmani Grandal240.115$750kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Stults332.075$508kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Bass251.108$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Guzman291.151$503kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Cashner262.126$501kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyson Ross261.126$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Forsythe261.113$499kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dale Thayer321.071$499kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Brach271.016$498kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexi Amarista241.053$497kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jedd Gyorko240.000$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Vincent260.066$304kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
René Rivera291.169$228kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colt Hynes280.078$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Ciriaco271.036$206kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Erlin220.000$145kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Boxberger250.075$143kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Burch Smith230.000$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Layne280.051$134kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean O'Sullivan252.081$110kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Robinson29–$86k
Jaff Decker230.098$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Medica250.000$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miles Mikolas240.104$24kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thad Weber280.002$11kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rey Fuentes22–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.