RRosternomics

Pirates PIT

GM: Dave Littlefield

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.53× league · TAB -6.2
-6.2TAB — talent above budget25th/30
-6.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars29th/30
-6.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag24th/30
79%dead money %30th/30
0.414win %27th/30
20.2roster fWAR28th/30
+3surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$40Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFChris Duffy 77GJosé Bautista 57GNate McLouth 42G
LFJason Bay 157GJosé Bautista 6GJosé Hernández 3G
RFXavier Nady 99GJeromy Burnitz 84GNate McLouth 39G
SSJack Wilson 131GFreddy Sanchez 28G
2BJose Castillo 145GFreddy Sanchez 23GJosé Hernández 3G
3BFreddy Sanchez 99GJoe Randa 42GJosé Bautista 33G
1BXavier Nady 35GRyan Doumit 28GJoe Randa 15G
STARTERSZach Duke 3.5WARIan Snell 1.5WARPaul Maholm 1.3WARVictor Santos 0.9WARTom Gorzelanny 0.8WAR
CRonny Paulino 124GHumberto Cota 33GRyan Doumit 11G
DHRyan Doumit 3GJoe Randa 3GYurendell Decaster 1G
BULLPEN Michael Gonzalez 24svSalomon Torres 20hMatt Capps 13hDamaso Marte 13hJohn Grabow 11hJosh Sharpless 2hJonah Bayliss 1hRyan Vogelsong 0h
CRonny Paulino 124 · Humberto Cota 33 · Ryan Doumit 11
1BXavier Nady 35 · Ryan Doumit 28 · Joe Randa 15
2BJose Castillo 145 · Freddy Sanchez 23 · José Hernández 3
3BFreddy Sanchez 99 · Joe Randa 42 · José Bautista 33
SSJack Wilson 131 · Freddy Sanchez 28
LFJason Bay 157 · José Bautista 6 · José Hernández 3
CFChris Duffy 77 · José Bautista 57 · Nate McLouth 42
RFXavier Nady 99 · Jeromy Burnitz 84 · Nate McLouth 39
DHRyan Doumit 3 · Joe Randa 3 · Yurendell Decaster 1
SPZach Duke 3.5 · Ian Snell 1.5 · Paul Maholm 1.3 · Victor Santos 0.9 · Tom Gorzelanny 0.8
BP Michael Gonzalez 24 · Salomon Torres 20 · Matt Capps 13 · Damaso Marte 13 · John Grabow 11 · Josh Sharpless 2 · Jonah Bayliss 1 · Ryan Vogelsong 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jason Bay 27 arb 1595.2 1.0 +9.4
Freddy Sanchez 28 arb 1574.6 0.3 +8.9
Zach Duke 23 pre-arb 343.5 0.3 +6.6
Ronny Paulino 25 1291.9 0.3 +3.4
Ian Snell 24 pre-arb 371.5 0.3 +2.7
Michael Gonzalez 28 arb 541.3 0.3 +2.3
Paul Maholm 24 pre-arb 301.3 0.3 +2.2
Salomon Torres 34 FA-elig 941.1 1.5 +0.6
Victor Santos 29 arb 250.9 0.5 +1.3
Chris Duffy 26 pre-arb 840.8 0.3 +1.4
Tom Gorzelanny 23 110.8 0.3 +1.3
John Grabow 27 arb 720.6 0.3 +0.8
Damaso Marte 31 FA-elig 750.6 2.2 -1.1
Matt Capps 22 pre-arb 850.5 0.3 +0.7
Jack Wilson 28 arb 1420.4 4.8 -4.0
Shane Youman 26 50.4
Ryan Vogelsong 28 FA-elig 200.3 0.6 -0.0
Marty McLeary 31 50.2
José Hernández↔ PHI 36 FA-elig 670.1 0.7 -0.4
Craig Wilson↔ NYY 29 arb 850.1 2.2 -2.0
Roberto Hernandez↔ NYM 41 FA-elig 460.1 1.9 -1.6
Kip Wells↔ TEX 29 FA-elig 70.1 3.2 -3.0
Xavier Nady↔ NYM 27 FA-elig 550.1 0.2 +0.0
Sean Casey↔ DET 31 FA-elig 590.1 4.5 -4.4
Jonah Bayliss 25 110.0
Josh Sharpless 25 140.0
Ryan Doumit 25 pre-arb 61-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Yurendell Decaster 26 3-0.1
Brian Rogers 23 10-0.1
Britt Reames 32 6-0.1
Juan Pablo Perez 27 7-0.1
Nate McLouth 24 pre-arb 106-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Mike Edwards 29 14-0.1
Oliver Pérez↔ NYM 24 arb 16-0.2 1.3 -1.7
Rajai Davis 25 20-0.2
Carlos Maldonado 27 8-0.3
Joe Randa 36 FA-elig 89-0.5 4.0 -5.0
Humberto Cota 27 arb 38-0.7 0.3 -1.7
Jose Castillo 25 pre-arb 148-0.8 0.3 -1.9
Shawn Chacon↔ NYY 28 arb 9-0.8 1.2 -2.8
Jeromy Burnitz 37 FA-elig 111-1.1 6.0 -8.1
José Bautista 25 117-1.1

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Victor Santos0.9
Damaso Marte0.6
Shane Youman0.4
Marty McLeary0.2
José Hernández0.1
Roberto Hernandez0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Rob Mackowiak2.0
Mark Redman1.9
Matt Lawton III0.9
Rick White0.5
Josh Fogg0.4
David Ross0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$40.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Jeromy Burnitz3713.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Sean Casey319.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Joe Randa3611.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Kip Wells297.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Damaso Marte317.000$2.2M$2.6M$1.4MFREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez4115.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Salomon Torres3413.000$1.5M$2.7MFREE AGENT
José Hernández3615.000$670kFREE AGENT
Ryan Vogelsong286.000$555kFREE AGENT
Xavier Nady276.000$181k$2.1M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Britt Reames326.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Jack Wilson285.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Craig Wilson295.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Oliver Pérez244.000$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Chacon285.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jason Bay273.000$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Santos295.000$500kFREE AGENT
Michael Gonzalez283.000$347kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Humberto Cota275.000$342kFREE AGENT
Freddy Sanchez284.000$342kARB 3FREE AGENT
John Grabow273.000$342kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Jose Castillo252.000$348kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Duke231.000$335kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Doumit251.000$333kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Duffy261.000$331kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Snell242.000$330kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate McLouth241.000$329kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Maholm241.000$328kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Capps221.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Paulino251.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Gorzelanny231.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marty McLeary31
Mike Edwards29
José Bautista252.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Maldonado27
Rajai Davis250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonah Bayliss251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yurendell Decaster26
Brian Rogers23
Juan Pablo Perez270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Youman26
Josh Sharpless25

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Pirates 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3