RRosternomics

Phillies PHI

GM: Matt Klentak

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.26× league · TAB -10.5
-10.5TAB — talent above budget22nd/30
-4.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-6.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
45%dead money %19th/30
0.500win %16th/30
26.7roster fWAR18th/30
-76surplus $M (value vs cost)26th/30
$164Mpayroll $M8th/30

Roster

CFScott Kingery 65GAdam Haseley 40GOdúbel Herrera 37G
LFCorey Dickerson 65GAndrew McCutchen 52GJay Bruce 37G
RFBryce Harper 152GAdam Haseley 10GNick Williams 5G
SSJean Segura 142GScott Kingery 18GSean Rodríguez 11G
2BCésar Hernández 157GScott Kingery 10GSean Rodríguez 3G
3BMaikel Franco 110GScott Kingery 41GSean Rodríguez 24G
1BRhys Hoskins 158GJ.T. Realmuto 4GLogan Morrison 3G
STARTERSAaron Nola 3.5WARZach Eflin 1.4WARJake Arrieta 1.1WARVince Velasquez 0.7WARJason Vargas 0.5WAR
CJ.T. Realmuto 133GAndrew Knapp 43GDeivy Grullón 2G
DHJay Bruce 7GBryce Harper 2GRhys Hoskins 2G
BULLPEN Héctor Neris 28svAdam Morgan 19hJose Alvarez 16hBlake Parker 13hJuan Nicasio 10hJared Hughes 8hMike Morin 8hRanger Suarez 7h
CJ.T. Realmuto 133 · Andrew Knapp 43 · Deivy Grullón 2
1BRhys Hoskins 158 · J.T. Realmuto 4 · Logan Morrison 3
2BCésar Hernández 157 · Scott Kingery 10 · Sean Rodríguez 3
3BMaikel Franco 110 · Scott Kingery 41 · Sean Rodríguez 24
SSJean Segura 142 · Scott Kingery 18 · Sean Rodríguez 11
LFCorey Dickerson 65 · Andrew McCutchen 52 · Jay Bruce 37
CFScott Kingery 65 · Adam Haseley 40 · Odúbel Herrera 37
RFBryce Harper 152 · Adam Haseley 10 · Nick Williams 5
DHJay Bruce 7 · Bryce Harper 2 · Rhys Hoskins 2
SPAaron Nola 3.5 · Zach Eflin 1.4 · Jake Arrieta 1.1 · Vince Velasquez 0.7 · Jason Vargas 0.5
BP Héctor Neris 28 · Adam Morgan 19 · Jose Alvarez 16 · Blake Parker 13 · Juan Nicasio 10 · Jared Hughes 8 · Mike Morin 8 · Ranger Suarez 7

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
J.T. Realmuto 28 arb 1455.9 5.9 +13.5
Bryce Harper 26 FA-elig 1573.8 11.5 +1.0
Aaron Nola 26 arb 343.5 4.5 +7.0
Rhys Hoskins 26 pre-arb 1602.2 0.6 +6.8
Scott Kingery 25 pre-arb 1262.1 1.5 +5.4
César Hernández 29 FA-elig 1611.7 7.8 -2.2
Jean Segura 29 FA-elig 1441.6 14.8 -9.6
Zach Eflin 25 arb 321.4 0.6 +4.2
Jake Arrieta 33 FA-elig 241.1 25.0 -21.3
Andrew McCutchen 32 FA-elig 591.1 10.0 -6.4
Héctor Neris 30 arb 681.0 1.8 +1.4
Brad Miller↔ CLE 29 arb 660.9 0.3 +2.8
Adam Haseley 23 670.7 0.3 +2.1
Vince Velasquez 27 arb 350.7 2.2 -0.0
Sean Rodríguez 34 FA-elig 760.5 0.1 +1.7
Jason Vargas↔ NYM 36 FA-elig 110.5 2.9 -1.3
Ranger Suarez 23 pre-arb 370.4 0.3 +1.1
Juan Nicasio 32 FA-elig 470.4 9.2 -7.8
Drew Smyly↔ TEX 30 FA-elig 120.4 3.4 -1.9
Corey Dickerson↔ PIT 30 FA-elig 340.4 3.7 -2.3
Jose Alvarez 30 FA-elig 670.4 1.9 -0.7
Nick Vincent↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 140.4 0.8 +0.4
Adam Morgan 29 arb 400.3 1.1 -0.3
Seranthony Domínguez 24 pre-arb 270.2 0.6 +0.0
Tommy Hunter 32 FA-elig 50.2 9.0 -8.5
Cole Irvin 25 160.2 0.2 +0.3
Andrew Knapp 27 pre-arb 740.2 0.6 -0.1
José Pirela↔ SDP 29 arb 120.1 0.5 -0.0
Jay Bruce↔ SEA 32 FA-elig 510.1 7.3 -6.9
Roman Quinn 26 arb 440.1 0.6 -0.2
Mike Morin↔ MIN 28 arb 290.1 0.1 +0.2
Blake Parker↔ MIN 34 FA-elig 230.1 0.7 -0.4
Víctor Arano 24 pre-arb 30.0 0.5 -0.5
Fernando Salas 34 FA-elig 3-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Rob Brantly 29 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Dylan Cozens 25 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Mitch Walding 26 2-0.0
JD Hammer 24 20-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Nick Pivetta 26 pre-arb 30-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Drew Anderson 25 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
David Robertson 34 FA-elig 7-0.1 10.0 -10.3
Logan Morrison 31 FA-elig 29-0.1 0.3 -0.7
Deivy Grullón 23 4-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Yacksel Ríos↔ PIT 26 4-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Phil Gosselin 30 44-0.2
Enyel De Los Santos 23 5-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Pat Neshek 38 FA-elig 20-0.3 7.8 -8.6
Odúbel Herrera 27 arb 39-0.3 5.3 -6.3
Austin Davis 26 pre-arb 14-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Edubray Ramos 26 arb 20-0.3 0.6 -1.7
Jared Hughes↔ CIN 33 FA-elig 25-0.5 0.7 -2.4
Aaron Altherr↔ NYM 28 arb 22-0.5 0.6 -2.3
Jerad Eickhoff 28 arb 12-0.5 1.0 -2.7
Edgar García 22 37-0.6 0.2 -2.1
Maikel Franco 26 arb 123-0.6 5.2 -7.1
Nick Williams 25 pre-arb 67-1.0 0.6 -3.9

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
J.T. Realmuto5.9
Bryce Harper3.8
Jean Segura1.6
Andrew McCutchen1.1
Brad Miller0.9
Adam Haseley0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Jorge Alfaro2.8
Carlos Santana2.3
Wilson Ramos0.7
Luis García0.6
Asdrúbal Cabrera0.3
José Bautista0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$163.8M
2020 guaranteed
$11.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Jake Arrieta337.145$25.0MFREE AGENT
Jean Segura296.065$14.8MFREE AGENT
Bryce Harper266.159$11.5M$11.2M$28.1M$27.6M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M
Andrew McCutchen329.123$10.0MFREE AGENT
David Robertson3410.070$10.0MFREE AGENT
Juan Nicasio327.084$9.2MFREE AGENT
Tommy Hunter329.090$9.0MFREE AGENT
Pat Neshek3810.159$7.8MFREE AGENT
Jay Bruce3210.125$7.3MFREE AGENT
Drew Smyly306.154$3.4MFREE AGENT
Jason Vargas3611.114$2.9MFREE AGENT
Jared Hughes336.162$738kFREE AGENT
Logan Morrison318.069$253kFREE AGENT
Sean Rodríguez349.118$100kFREE AGENT
Fernando Salas347.147$70kFREE AGENT
Phil Gosselin306.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
César Hernández294.154$7.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
J.T. Realmuto284.038$5.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Odúbel Herrera274.000$5.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Maikel Franco263.170$5.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Nola263.076$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Dickerson305.101$3.7MFREE AGENT
Vince Velasquez273.086$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Alvarez304.035$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Neris303.068$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Morgan293.017$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerad Eickhoff283.045$975kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Vincent325.067$766kFREE AGENT
Blake Parker344.036$690kARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Altherr283.028$606kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Pirela293.002$493kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Miller295.004$269kFREE AGENT
Mike Morin283.047$125kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Scott Kingery251.000$1.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Pivetta261.129$598kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Eflin252.018$590kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rhys Hoskins261.053$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Williams251.094$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edubray Ramos262.075$574kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Knapp271.171$565kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seranthony Domínguez240.147$564kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roman Quinn260.088$559kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Víctor Arano241.020$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ranger Suarez230.022$334kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Haseley230.000$304kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar García220.000$245kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Irvin250.000$176kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Davis260.105$170kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JD Hammer240.000$167kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Deivy Grullón230.000$87kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enyel De Los Santos231.000$72kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yacksel Ríos260.160$39kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Anderson251.005$18kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Brantly291.171$9kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Cozens251.079$6kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Walding26

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3