PHI⇄PIT

PHIPHI Matt Klentak net −$2.4M net +0.4

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $11M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.6 ± 1 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2019 odds 3% → 3% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Corey DickersonOF·30y·L/R

+$11.6M+$11.6M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.6± 1 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.65/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net +$2.4M net -0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.