RRosternomics

Phillies PHI

GM: Ruben Amaro

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.63× league · TAB -18.0
-18.0TAB — talent above budget30th/30
-15.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars23rd/30
-7.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
32%dead money %16th/30
0.451win %24th/30
22.3roster fWAR26th/30
-108surplus $M (value vs cost)29th/30
$169Mpayroll $M3rd/30

Roster

CFBen Revere 87GJohn Mayberry Jr. 46GCésar Hernández 22G
LFDomonic Brown 132GDarin Ruf 20GFreddy Galvis 10G
RFJohn Mayberry Jr. 79GRoger Bernadina 40GDarin Ruf 29G
SSJimmy Rollins 153GJohn McDonald 19GFreddy Galvis 11G
2BChase Utley 125GFreddy Galvis 23GKevin Frandsen 20G
3BCody Asche 44GFreddy Galvis 16GJohn McDonald 16G
1BRyan Howard 76GKevin Frandsen 40GDarin Ruf 36G
STARTERSCliff Lee 5.8WARCole Hamels 4.9WARKyle Kendrick 2.0WARJonathan Pettibone 0.9WARJohn Lannan 0.7WAR
CCarlos Ruiz 86GErik Kratz 60GSteven Lerud 5G
DHChase Utley 1G
BULLPEN Jonathan Papelbon 29svAntonio Bastardo 14hJake Diekman 11hJustin De Fratus 9hMike Adams 8hJeremy Horst 2hB.J. Rosenberg 2hLuis García 1h
CCarlos Ruiz 86 · Erik Kratz 60 · Steven Lerud 5
1BRyan Howard 76 · Kevin Frandsen 40 · Darin Ruf 36
2BChase Utley 125 · Freddy Galvis 23 · Kevin Frandsen 20
3BCody Asche 44 · Freddy Galvis 16 · John McDonald 16
SSJimmy Rollins 153 · John McDonald 19 · Freddy Galvis 11
LFDomonic Brown 132 · Darin Ruf 20 · Freddy Galvis 10
CFBen Revere 87 · John Mayberry Jr. 46 · César Hernández 22
RFJohn Mayberry Jr. 79 · Roger Bernadina 40 · Darin Ruf 29
DHChase Utley 1
SPCliff Lee 5.8 · Cole Hamels 4.9 · Kyle Kendrick 2.0 · Jonathan Pettibone 0.9 · John Lannan 0.7
BP Jonathan Papelbon 29 · Antonio Bastardo 14 · Jake Diekman 11 · Justin De Fratus 9 · Mike Adams 8 · Jeremy Horst 2 · B.J. Rosenberg 2 · Luis García 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Cliff Lee 34 FA-elig 345.8 25.0 -9.5
Cole Hamels 29 FA-elig 334.9 19.5 -6.4
Chase Utley 34 FA-elig 1313.7 15.0 -5.0
Domonic Brown 25 arb 1392.4 0.5 +5.9
Kyle Kendrick 28 FA-elig 322.0 4.5 +0.8
Jimmy Rollins 34 FA-elig 1601.7 11.0 -6.5
Jonathan Papelbon 32 FA-elig 611.1 13.0 -10.0
Jonathan Pettibone 22 180.9 0.4 +2.1
Ben Revere 25 arb 880.9 0.5 +1.8
Darin Ruf 26 pre-arb 730.8 0.2 +1.9
Erik Kratz 33 arb 680.8 0.5 +1.5
Jake Diekman 26 pre-arb 450.7 0.3 +1.6
John Lannan 28 FA-elig 140.7 2.5 -0.7
Antonio Bastardo 27 arb 480.6 1.4 +0.3
Ryan Howard 33 FA-elig 800.6 20.0 -18.5
Cody Asche 23 arb 500.4 0.2 +0.9
B.J. Rosenberg 27 pre-arb 220.4 0.1 +0.9
Tyler Cloyd 26 pre-arb 130.3 0.2 +0.8
Humberto Quintero↔ SEA 33 FA-elig 240.3 0.5 +0.3
Michael Young↔ LAD 36 FA-elig 1260.3 13.7 -13.0
Freddy Galvis 23 pre-arb 700.2 0.5 -0.0
Justin De Fratus 25 580.1 0.4 -0.1
Cameron Rupp 24 40.1 0.1 +0.2
Carlos Ruiz 34 FA-elig 920.1 5.0 -4.8
Raul Valdes 35 arb 170.1 0.5 -0.3
Mauricio Robles 24 pre-arb 30.1 0.1 +0.1
Phillippe Aumont 24 pre-arb 220.1 0.5 -0.3
Michael Stutes 26 pre-arb 160.0 0.5 -0.4
Joe Savery 27 pre-arb 18-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Cesar Jimenez 28 pre-arb 19-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Kevin Frandsen 31 FA-elig 119-0.1 0.8 -1.0
John Mayberry Jr. 29 arb 134-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Roger Bernadina↔ WSN 29 arb 27-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Steven Lerud 28 6-0.1
Pete Orr 34 arb 15-0.1 0.1 -0.5
John McDonald↔ BOS 38 21-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Ezequiel Carrera↔ CLE 26 13-0.2
Steve Susdorf 27 3-0.2 0.0 -0.5
Jeremy Horst 27 pre-arb 28-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Zach Miner 31 16-0.3 0.2 -0.9
Chad Durbin 35 FA-elig 16-0.3 1.1 -2.0
Mike Adams 34 FA-elig 28-0.4 5.0 -5.9
Luis García 26 24-0.4 0.2 -1.3
Ethan Martin 24 pre-arb 15-0.4 0.2 -1.3
César Hernández 23 34-0.5 0.1 -1.4
Casper Wells↔ CHW 28 arb 12-0.5 0.1 -1.4
Michael Martinez 30 pre-arb 29-0.6 0.2 -1.9
JC Ramírez 24 18-0.6 0.1 -1.8
Delmon Young↔ TBR 27 FA-elig 80-0.7 0.6 -2.3
Laynce Nix 32 FA-elig 81-0.8 1.4 -3.5
Roy Halladay 36 FA-elig 13-0.9 20.0 -22.3

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Jonathan Pettibone0.9
Ben Revere0.9
John Lannan0.7
Cody Asche0.4
Humberto Quintero0.3
Michael Young0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Shane Victorino2.0
Vance Worley1.6
Hunter Pence1.6
Juan Pierre1.6
Joe Blanton1.6
Jim Thome0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$168.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Cliff Lee349.100$25.0M$25.0MFREE AGENT
Roy Halladay3613.047$20.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Howard3310.145$20.0M$25.0M$25.0M$25.0MFREE AGENT
Cole Hamels296.143$19.5M$22.5M$14.7MFREE AGENT
Chase Utley349.027$15.0M$15.0M$10.2MFREE AGENT
Michael Young3611.134$13.7MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Papelbon327.064$13.0M$13.0M$8.2MFREE AGENT
Jimmy Rollins3412.015$11.0M$11.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Ruiz346.069$5.0M$8.5M$8.5M$6.6MFREE AGENT
Mike Adams346.019$5.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Laynce Nix327.070$1.4MFREE AGENT
Chad Durbin358.102$1.1MFREE AGENT
Delmon Young276.034$583kFREE AGENT
Humberto Quintero337.085$470kFREE AGENT
John McDonald3811.118$242kFREE AGENT
Zach Miner317.000$158kFREE AGENT
César Hernández239.154$123k$500k$510k$525k$2.5M$5.1M$7.8M

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Kyle Kendrick284.159$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
John Lannan284.046$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Antonio Bastardo273.054$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Frandsen313.151$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Mayberry Jr.294.000$517kARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Bernadina293.146$292kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Asche233.045$169kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casper Wells283.040$114kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Orr344.016$94kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Ben Revere251.149$515kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raul Valdes352.085$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domonic Brown251.078$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Horst271.160$497kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Kratz330.158$496kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Stutes262.114$492kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillippe Aumont240.044$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Galvis231.000$490kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Pettibone220.000$431kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin De Fratus252.000$380kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Savery270.104$335kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Diekman260.114$292kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darin Ruf260.024$230kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis García260.000$222kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Martinez301.148$203kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ethan Martin240.128$158kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Cloyd260.036$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesar Jimenez282.070$147kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
B.J. Rosenberg270.166$145kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JC Ramírez240.000$126kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauricio Robles240.075$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cameron Rupp240.000$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Susdorf27$19k
Steven Lerud28
Ezequiel Carrera261.082Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3