RRosternomics

Phillies PHI

GM: Ed Wade

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.31× league · TAB +7.7
+7.7TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+2.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-3.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
27%dead money %9th/30
0.543win %9th/30
45.3roster fWAR2nd/30
-12surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$95Mpayroll $M4th/30

Roster

CFKenny Lofton 97GJason Michaels 75GEndy Chavez 34G
LFPat Burrell 153GJason Michaels 22GEndy Chavez 20G
RFBobby Abreu 158GJason Michaels 13GEndy Chavez 5G
SSJimmy Rollins 157GRamon Martinez 15GTomás Pérez 14G
2BChase Utley 135GMatt Kata 10GRamon Martinez 5G
3BDavid Bell 150GTomás Pérez 15GRamon Martinez 4G
1BRyan Howard 84GJim Thome 52GTomás Pérez 24G
STARTERSBrett Myers 3.4WARCory Lidle 3.3WARJon Lieber 2.7WARRobinson Tejeda 1.1WARVicente Padilla 0.8WAR
CMike Lieberthal 117GTodd Pratt 57G
DHJim Thome 5GBobby Abreu 3GKenny Lofton 1G
BULLPEN Billy Wagner 38svRyan Madson 32hUgueth Urbina 21hRheal Cormier 17hGeoff Geary 3hAaron Fultz 2hTerry Adams 2hAquilino López 0h
CMike Lieberthal 117 · Todd Pratt 57
1BRyan Howard 84 · Jim Thome 52 · Tomás Pérez 24
2BChase Utley 135 · Matt Kata 10 · Ramon Martinez 5
3BDavid Bell 150 · Tomás Pérez 15 · Ramon Martinez 4
SSJimmy Rollins 157 · Ramon Martinez 15 · Tomás Pérez 14
LFPat Burrell 153 · Jason Michaels 22 · Endy Chavez 20
CFKenny Lofton 97 · Jason Michaels 75 · Endy Chavez 34
RFBobby Abreu 158 · Jason Michaels 13 · Endy Chavez 5
DHJim Thome 5 · Bobby Abreu 3 · Kenny Lofton 1
SPBrett Myers 3.4 · Cory Lidle 3.3 · Jon Lieber 2.7 · Robinson Tejeda 1.1 · Vicente Padilla 0.8
BP Billy Wagner 38 · Ryan Madson 32 · Ugueth Urbina 21 · Rheal Cormier 17 · Geoff Geary 3 · Aaron Fultz 2 · Terry Adams 2 · Aquilino López 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2005 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Chase Utley 26 pre-arb 1477.2 0.3 +13.2
Jimmy Rollins 26 arb 1583.9 3.9 +3.5
Kenny Lofton 38 FA-elig 1103.9 3.1 +4.2
Bobby Abreu 31 FA-elig 1623.8 13.1 -5.8
Jason Michaels 29 arb 1053.6 0.8 +5.9
Brett Myers 24 arb 343.4 0.4 +5.9
Cory Lidle 33 FA-elig 313.3 3.0 +3.3
Pat Burrell 28 arb 1543.2 7.2 -1.2
Jon Lieber 35 FA-elig 362.7 5.6 -0.5
Ryan Howard 25 882.2 0.2 +3.9
Billy Wagner 33 FA-elig 752.1 9.0 -4.9
Placido Polanco↔ DET 29 FA-elig 431.8 1.5 +1.9
Mike Lieberthal 33 FA-elig 1181.2 7.5 -5.2
Robinson Tejeda 23 261.1
Vicente Padilla 27 FA-elig 270.8 3.2 -1.8
Ryan Madson 24 pre-arb 780.7 0.3 +1.0
Randy Wolf 28 FA-elig 150.7 6.6 -5.3
Aaron Fultz 31 arb 620.6 0.6 +0.6
Ugueth Urbina↔ DET 31 FA-elig 560.5 2.8 -1.7
Todd Pratt 38 FA-elig 600.5 0.8 +0.2
Geoff Geary 28 400.4
David Bell 32 FA-elig 1500.3 4.7 -4.1
Eude Brito 26 60.2
Shane Victorino 24 210.1
Aquilino Lopez↔ COL 30 100.1
Marlon Byrd↔ WSN 27 50.0
Michael Tucker↔ SFG 34 FA-elig 220.0 0.3 -0.3
Tim Worrell↔ ARI 37 FA-elig 19-0.0 1.1 -1.2
Amaury Telemaco 31 7-0.1
Matt Kata↔ ARI 27 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Jose Offerman↔ NYM 36 FA-elig 33-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Danny Sandoval 26 3-0.1
Jim Thome 34 FA-elig 59-0.1 13.2 -13.4
Gavin Floyd 22 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Pedro Liriano 24 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Ramon Martinez↔ DET 32 FA-elig 33-0.3 0.7 -1.3
Tomas Perez 31 FA-elig 94-0.4 0.7 -1.5
Terry Adams 32 FA-elig 16-0.4 0.5 -1.3
Rheal Cormier 38 FA-elig 57-0.5 2.2 -3.1
Endy Chavez↔ WSN 27 91-0.6 0.3 -1.4

Key additions (new vs 2004)

PlayerfWAR
Kenny Lofton3.9
Jon Lieber2.7
Robinson Tejeda1.1
Aaron Fultz0.6
Ugueth Urbina0.5
Eude Brito0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2004)

Player2004 fWAR
Kevin Millwood3.0
Ricky Ledee1.5
Eric Milton1.4
Felix Rodriguez0.6
Todd Jones0.2
Brian Powell0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2005 payroll
$94.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2005, 2005–2011. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Jim Thome3414.000$13.2MFREE AGENT
Bobby Abreu319.000$13.1M$8.5MFREE AGENT
Billy Wagner3310.000$9.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Lieberthal3311.000$7.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Randy Wolf286.000$6.6M$9.1MFREE AGENT
Jon Lieber3511.000$5.6M$7.6M$7.8MFREE AGENT
David Bell3210.000$4.7M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Vicente Padilla276.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Kenny Lofton3814.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Cory Lidle338.000$3.0M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Ugueth Urbina3110.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Rheal Cormier3814.000$2.2M$1.7MFREE AGENT
Placido Polanco297.000$1.5MFREE AGENT$5.2M$5.4M
Tim Worrell3712.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Todd Pratt3813.000$750kFREE AGENT
Ramon Martinez327.000$650kFREE AGENT
Tomas Perez3110.000$650kFREE AGENT
Terry Adams3210.000$500kFREE AGENT
Michael Tucker3410.000$349kFREE AGENT
Jose Offerman3615.000$192kFREE AGENT
Amaury Telemaco319.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Pat Burrell285.000$7.2MFREE AGENT
Jimmy Rollins265.000$3.9MFREE AGENT
Jason Michaels294.000$825kARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Fultz315.000$550kFREE AGENT
Brett Myers243.000$445kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Endy Chavez274.000$293kARB 3FREE AGENT
Marlon Byrd273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Ryan Madson242.000$350kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Utley262.000$345kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gavin Floyd221.000$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Liriano241.000$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Howard251.000$187kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Kata272.000$82kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geoff Geary282.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aquilino Lopez302.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Victorino242.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eude Brito26
Robinson Tejeda230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Sandoval26

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 2005; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3