RRosternomics

Phillies PHI

GM: Ed Wade

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.42× league · TAB +1.5
+1.5TAB — talent above budget18th/30
-0.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-5.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
8%dead money %2nd/30
0.531win %14th/30
40.1roster fWAR11th/30
-26surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$95Mpayroll $M4th/30

Roster

CFMarlon Byrd 92GDoug Glanville 56GJason Michaels 44G
LFPat Burrell 122GJason Michaels 39GDoug Glanville 13G
RFBobby Abreu 158GJason Michaels 12G
SSJimmy Rollins 154GTomás Pérez 10G
2BPlacido Polanco 109GChase Utley 50GTomás Pérez 17G
3BDavid Bell 142GTomás Pérez 22GPlacido Polanco 13G
1BJim Thome 134GChase Utley 13GShawn Wooten 11G
STARTERSKevin Millwood 3.0WARRandy Wolf 2.4WAREric Milton 1.4WARBrett Myers 1.4WARCory Lidle 1.4WAR
CMike Lieberthal 129GTodd Pratt 43GA.J. Hinch 4G
DHJim Thome 6GRicky Ledee 2GJason Michaels 1G
BULLPEN Tim Worrell 19svRheal Cormier 28hTodd Jones 26hFelix Rodriguez 20hRoberto Hernandez 9hRyan Madson 7hAmaury Telemaco 5hBilly Wagner 1h
CMike Lieberthal 129 · Todd Pratt 43 · A.J. Hinch 4
1BJim Thome 134 · Chase Utley 13 · Shawn Wooten 11
2BPlacido Polanco 109 · Chase Utley 50 · Tomás Pérez 17
3BDavid Bell 142 · Tomás Pérez 22 · Placido Polanco 13
SSJimmy Rollins 154 · Tomás Pérez 10
LFPat Burrell 122 · Jason Michaels 39 · Doug Glanville 13
CFMarlon Byrd 92 · Doug Glanville 56 · Jason Michaels 44
RFBobby Abreu 158 · Jason Michaels 12
DHJim Thome 6 · Ricky Ledee 2 · Jason Michaels 1
SPKevin Millwood 3.0 · Randy Wolf 2.4 · Eric Milton 1.4 · Brett Myers 1.4 · Cory Lidle 1.4
BP Tim Worrell 19 · Rheal Cormier 28 · Todd Jones 26 · Felix Rodriguez 20 · Roberto Hernandez 9 · Ryan Madson 7 · Amaury Telemaco 5 · Billy Wagner 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Bobby Abreu 30 FA-elig 1595.7 10.6 -0.8
Jimmy Rollins 25 arb 1545.0 2.4 +6.1
Jim Thome 33 FA-elig 1434.1 12.2 -5.1
David Bell 31 FA-elig 1433.6 4.4 +1.8
Kevin Millwood 29 FA-elig 253.0 11.0 -5.9
Randy Wolf 27 arb 252.4 4.4 -0.3
Placido Polanco 28 FA-elig 1262.1 4.0 -0.4
Pat Burrell 27 arb 1272.0 4.2 -0.8
Mike Lieberthal 32 FA-elig 1311.5 7.5 -4.9
Chase Utley 25 941.5 0.2 +2.4
Billy Wagner 32 FA-elig 451.5 8.0 -5.5
Ricky Ledee↔ SFG 30 FA-elig 731.5 0.9 +1.6
Cory Lidle↔ CIN 32 FA-elig 101.4 0.8 +1.6
Eric Milton 28 FA-elig 341.4 9.0 -6.6
Brett Myers 23 pre-arb 321.4 0.4 +2.0
Jason Michaels 28 arb 1151.4 0.3 +2.0
Ryan Madson 23 pre-arb 521.3 0.3 +1.9
Vicente Padilla 26 arb 201.2 2.6 -0.6
Tim Worrell 36 FA-elig 771.1 2.8 -0.8
Felix Rodriguez↔ SFG 31 FA-elig 230.6 0.9 +0.0
Rheal Cormier 37 FA-elig 840.4 3.0 -2.3
Ryan Howard 24 190.4
Gavin Floyd 21 60.3
Todd Pratt 37 FA-elig 450.2 0.9 -0.5
Todd Jones↔ CIN 36 FA-elig 270.2 0.2 +0.1
Brian Powell 30 170.1
Jim Crowell 30 40.0
A.J. Hinch 30 40.0
Elizardo Ramirez 21 7-0.0
Lou Collier 30 32-0.1
Josh Hancock↔ CIN 26 4-0.2
Geoff Geary 27 33-0.2
Roberto Hernandez 39 FA-elig 63-0.2 0.8 -1.2
Tomas Perez 30 FA-elig 86-0.3 0.8 -1.3
Amaury Telemaco 30 FA-elig 42-0.4 0.5 -1.3
Shawn Wooten 31 arb 33-0.6 0.6 -1.6
Doug Glanville 33 FA-elig 87-0.7 0.6 -1.7
Paul Abbott↔ TBR 36 FA-elig 10-0.9 0.3 -1.8
Marlon Byrd 26 pre-arb 106-1.5 0.4 -2.9

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Billy Wagner1.5
Cory Lidle1.4
Eric Milton1.4
Tim Worrell1.1
Felix Rodriguez0.6
Ryan Howard0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Terry Adams1.5
Dan Plesac0.7
Brandon Duckworth0.6
Joe Roa0.2
Carlos Silva0.1
Kelly Stinnett0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$94.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Jim Thome3313.000$12.2M$13.2MFREE AGENT
Kevin Millwood297.000$11.0MFREE AGENT
Bobby Abreu308.000$10.6M$13.1M$8.5MFREE AGENT
Eric Milton286.000$9.0MFREE AGENT
Billy Wagner329.000$8.0M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Lieberthal3210.000$7.5M$7.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
David Bell319.000$4.4M$4.7M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Placido Polanco286.000$4.0M$3.1MFREE AGENT$5.2M
Rheal Cormier3713.000$3.0M$2.2M$1.7MFREE AGENT
Tim Worrell3611.000$2.8M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Felix Rodriguez319.000$923kFREE AGENT
Todd Pratt3712.000$875k$750kFREE AGENT
Ricky Ledee306.000$860kFREE AGENT
Cory Lidle327.000$809k$3.0M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Tomas Perez309.000$750k$650kFREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez3913.000$750kFREE AGENT
Doug Glanville338.000$550kFREE AGENT
Amaury Telemaco308.000$525kFREE AGENT
Paul Abbott3614.000$300kFREE AGENT
Todd Jones3611.000$173kFREE AGENT
Lou Collier307.000FREE AGENT
A.J. Hinch306.000FREE AGENT
Brian Powell306.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Randy Wolf275.000$4.4MFREE AGENT
Pat Burrell274.000$4.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Vicente Padilla265.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Jimmy Rollins254.000$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Wooten314.000$575kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Michaels283.000$335kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Brett Myers232.000$362kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marlon Byrd262.000$355kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Madson231.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Utley251.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Crowell30
Geoff Geary271.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Hancock262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gavin Floyd210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Howard240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elizardo Ramirez210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3