RRosternomics

Athletics OAK

GM: David Forst

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.4× league · TAB -15.5
-15.5TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-19.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)28th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-10.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
83%dead money %30th/30
0.309win %30th/30
7.3roster fWAR30th/30
-32surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/30
$61Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFEsteury Ruiz 110GLawrence Butler 41GJJ Bleday 28G
LFTony Kemp 65GJJ Bleday 39GBrent Rooker 29G
RFSeth Brown 56GBrent Rooker 31GConner Capel 15G
SSNick Allen 104GAledmys Díaz 40GKevin Smith 34G
2BZack Gelof 69GTony Kemp 57GJordan Diaz 28G
3BAledmys Díaz 40GJordan Diaz 38GJonah Bride 27G
1BRyan Noda 119GJesús Aguilar 24GSeth Brown 17G
STARTERSPaul Blackburn 1.5WARMason Miller 0.7WARJP Sears 0.6WARAustin Pruitt 0.4WARLuis Medina 0.4WAR
CShea Langeliers 123GCarlos Pérez 31GTyler Soderstrom 15G
DHBrent Rooker 75GSeth Brown 18GTyler Soderstrom 18G
BULLPEN Trevor May 21svLucas Erceg 11hDany Jiménez 7hSam Long 5hRichard Lovelady 4hAdrián Martinez 1hZach Jackson 1hTayler Scott 0h
CShea Langeliers 123 · Carlos Pérez 31 · Tyler Soderstrom 15
1BRyan Noda 119 · Jesús Aguilar 24 · Seth Brown 17
2BZack Gelof 69 · Tony Kemp 57 · Jordan Diaz 28
3BAledmys Díaz 40 · Jordan Diaz 38 · Jonah Bride 27
SSNick Allen 104 · Aledmys Díaz 40 · Kevin Smith 34
LFTony Kemp 65 · JJ Bleday 39 · Brent Rooker 29
CFEsteury Ruiz 110 · Lawrence Butler 41 · JJ Bleday 28
RFSeth Brown 56 · Brent Rooker 31 · Conner Capel 15
DHBrent Rooker 75 · Seth Brown 18 · Tyler Soderstrom 18
SPPaul Blackburn 1.5 · Mason Miller 0.7 · JP Sears 0.6 · Austin Pruitt 0.4 · Luis Medina 0.4
BP Trevor May 21 · Lucas Erceg 11 · Dany Jiménez 7 · Sam Long 5 · Richard Lovelady 4 · Adrián Martinez 1 · Zach Jackson 1 · Tayler Scott 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Zack Gelof 23 692.7 0.3 +10.4
Brent Rooker 28 arb 1372.1 0.7 +7.5
Ryan Noda 27 1282.0 0.7 +7.4
Paul Blackburn 29 FA-elig 211.5 1.9 +4.0
Esteury Ruiz 24 pre-arb 1321.2 0.7 +4.2
Lucas Erceg 28 500.8 0.5 +2.7
Jace Peterson↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 930.7 3.1 -0.2
Mason Miller 24 100.7 0.6 +2.1
Shea Langeliers 25 pre-arb 1350.7 0.7 +1.9
Sam Moll↔ CIN 31 FA-elig 450.6 0.5 +1.9
JP Sears 27 pre-arb 320.6 0.7 +1.5
Zach Jackson 28 pre-arb 190.4 0.7 +1.0
Luis Medina 24 230.4 0.6 +1.2
Austin Pruitt 33 arb 380.4 0.6 +1.0
Joe Boyle 23 30.4 0.1 +1.5
JJ Bleday 25 pre-arb 820.4 0.6 +0.9
Francisco Pérez 25 pre-arb 170.3 0.2 +1.2
James Kaprielian 29 arb 140.3 0.7 +0.5
Ramón Laureano↔ CLE 28 arb 640.3 2.2 -1.0
Tyler Wade 28 arb 260.2 0.2 +0.8
Angel Felipe 25 140.2 0.3 +0.4
Sean Newcomb 30 arb 70.2 0.2 +0.5
Shintaro Fujinami↔ BAL 29 pre-arb 340.1 1.7 -1.2
Trevor May 33 FA-elig 490.1 7.0 -6.6
Cody Thomas 28 pre-arb 190.1 0.1 +0.1
Dany Jiménez 29 arb 250.1 0.7 -0.5
Hogan Harris 26 140.0 0.3 -0.1
Richard Lovelady 27 pre-arb 270.0 0.7 -0.6
Conner Capel 26 pre-arb 320.0 0.7 -0.7
Kirby Snead 28 pre-arb 15-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Easton Lucas 26 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Manny Piña 36 FA-elig 4-0.0 4.5 -4.6
Tony Kemp 31 FA-elig 124-0.1 3.7 -4.1
Sam Long 27 pre-arb 40-0.1 0.4 -1.0
Domingo Acevedo 29 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Tayler Scott↔ BOS 31 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Adrián Martinez 26 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.7 -1.3
Yacksel Ríos 30 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.4 -1.0
Spenser Watkins 30 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Lawrence Butler 22 42-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Ken Waldichuk 25 pre-arb 35-0.2 0.7 -1.4
Chad Smith 28 pre-arb 10-0.2 0.1 -1.0
Joey Estes 21 2-0.2 0.0 -1.0
Carlos Pérez 32 FA-elig 68-0.3 0.7 -1.7
Spencer Patton 35 pre-arb 12-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Devin Sweet↔ SEA 26 5-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Jonah Bride 27 pre-arb 40-0.3 0.3 -1.5
Jesús Aguilar 33 FA-elig 36-0.3 3.0 -4.3
Nick Allen 24 pre-arb 106-0.3 0.7 -2.0
Freddy Tarnok 24 pre-arb 5-0.3 0.7 -2.1
Rico Garcia↔ WSN 29 7-0.4 0.2 -1.6
Seth Brown 30 arb 112-0.4 0.7 -2.2
Aledmys Díaz 32 FA-elig 109-0.4 6.5 -8.1
Garrett Acton 25 6-0.4 0.1 -1.7
Jeurys Familia 33 FA-elig 14-0.4 1.5 -3.2
Kevin Smith 26 pre-arb 49-0.5 0.4 -2.3
Adam Oller 28 pre-arb 9-0.5 0.7 -2.6
Zach Neal 34 14-0.5 0.2 -2.1
Drew Rucinski 34 FA-elig 4-0.6 3.0 -5.3
Kyle Muller 25 pre-arb 21-0.7 0.7 -3.4
Jordan Diaz 22 pre-arb 90-0.7 0.5 -3.3
Tyler Soderstrom 21 45-1.0 0.3 -4.2

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Zack Gelof2.7
Brent Rooker2.1
Ryan Noda2.0
Esteury Ruiz1.2
Lucas Erceg0.8
Jace Peterson0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Sean Murphy5.2
Frankie Montas1.9
Elvis Andrus1.5
Cole Irvin1.4
Christian Bethancourt0.5
Daulton Jefferies0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$60.7M
2024 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Trevor May338.012$7.0MFREE AGENT
Aledmys Díaz326.100$6.5MFREE AGENT
Manny Piña3612.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Jace Peterson336.142$3.1MFREE AGENT
Jesús Aguilar339.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jeurys Familia3311.000$1.5MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Tony Kemp315.098$3.7MFREE AGENT
Ramón Laureano283.165$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Blackburn293.018$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Pruitt334.055$581kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Wade284.009$170kARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Newcomb304.073$151kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (50)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Drew Rucinski340.162$3.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shintaro Fujinami290.000$1.7MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Pérez322.167$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Kaprielian292.004$730kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Brown302.104$730kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Acevedo291.033$725kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Rooker281.059$725kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Jackson281.000$725kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dany Jiménez291.031$725kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JP Sears270.081$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrián Martinez260.054$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Allen240.126$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Muller250.046$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conner Capel260.044$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shea Langeliers250.051$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Waldichuk250.035$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Oller280.128$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Esteury Ruiz240.029$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Noda270.000$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Tarnok240.002$697kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Lovelady271.026$654kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Miller240.000$639kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JJ Bleday250.075$588kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Medina240.000$561kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Erceg280.000$523kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirby Snead281.009$503kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Diaz220.018$488kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Moll311.075$466kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Smith260.128$449kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Long271.045$449kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yacksel Ríos302.088$399kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Felipe25$333k
Zack Gelof230.000$310kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonah Bride270.114$283kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hogan Harris260.000$271kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Soderstrom210.000$267kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rico Garcia291.123$201kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lawrence Butler220.000$197kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Pérez250.055$191kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Neal34$182k
Cody Thomas280.035$147kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Patton351.159$97kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Smith280.054$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Easton Lucas260.077$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Acton250.000$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Sweet260.000$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Boyle230.000$54kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Estes210.000$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Scott310.125$41kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spenser Watkins301.071$8kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3