RRosternomics

Athletics OAK

President of baseball ops: Billy Beane · GM: David Forst

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.34× league · TAB -12.7
-12.7TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-8.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)22nd/30
1.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars29th/30
-11.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
54%dead money %25th/30
0.370win %29th/30
8.3roster fWAR29th/30
-16surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$49Mpayroll $M29th/30

Roster

CFCristian Pache 90GSkye Bolt 36GRamón Laureano 34G
LFTony Kemp 65GChad Pinder 64GSeth Brown 38G
RFRamón Laureano 71GSeth Brown 32GChad Pinder 30G
SSNick Allen 60GKevin Smith 10GSheldon Neuse 2G
2BTony Kemp 89GNick Allen 43GJonah Bride 32G
3BVimael Machín 68GSheldon Neuse 44GKevin Smith 39G
1BSeth Brown 84GDérmis Garcia 35GStephen Vogt 17G
STARTERSCole Irvin 1.4WARPaul Blackburn 0.8WARDaulton Jefferies 0.5WARJames Kaprielian 0.3WARKen Waldichuk 0.3WAR
CSean Murphy 116GStephen Vogt 19GShea Langeliers 17G
DHJed Lowrie 39GSean Murphy 30GStephen Vogt 26G
BULLPEN Dany Jiménez 11svZach Jackson 26hDomingo Acevedo 20hA.J. Puk 20hSam Moll 16hKirby Snead 5hJoel Payamps 3hAustin Pruitt 2h
CSean Murphy 116 · Stephen Vogt 19 · Shea Langeliers 17
1BSeth Brown 84 · Dérmis Garcia 35 · Stephen Vogt 17
2BTony Kemp 89 · Nick Allen 43 · Jonah Bride 32
3BVimael Machín 68 · Sheldon Neuse 44 · Kevin Smith 39
SSNick Allen 60 · Kevin Smith 10 · Sheldon Neuse 2
LFTony Kemp 65 · Chad Pinder 64 · Seth Brown 38
CFCristian Pache 90 · Skye Bolt 36 · Ramón Laureano 34
RFRamón Laureano 71 · Seth Brown 32 · Chad Pinder 30
DHJed Lowrie 39 · Sean Murphy 30 · Stephen Vogt 26
SPCole Irvin 1.4 · Paul Blackburn 0.8 · Daulton Jefferies 0.5 · James Kaprielian 0.3 · Ken Waldichuk 0.3
BP Dany Jiménez 11 · Zach Jackson 26 · Domingo Acevedo 20 · A.J. Puk 20 · Sam Moll 16 · Kirby Snead 5 · Joel Payamps 3 · Austin Pruitt 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Sean Murphy 27 pre-arb 1485.2 0.7 +18.5
Frankie Montas↔ NYY 29 FA-elig 191.9 3.5 +3.3
Seth Brown 29 pre-arb 1501.5 0.7 +4.9
Elvis Andrus↔ CHW 33 FA-elig 1061.5 10.1 -4.5
Cole Irvin 28 pre-arb 301.4 0.7 +4.3
Tony Kemp 30 FA-elig 1471.4 2.2 +2.8
Zach Jackson 27 540.9 0.7 +2.6
Paul Blackburn 28 pre-arb 210.8 0.7 +2.2
Conner Capel↔ STL 25 130.6 0.0 +2.1
Ramón Laureano 27 arb 940.6 2.5 -0.3
Nick Allen 23 1000.5 0.5 +1.5
Christian Bethancourt↔ TBR 30 560.5 0.2 +1.6
Daulton Jefferies 26 pre-arb 80.5 0.7 +1.0
Dany Jiménez 28 pre-arb 340.4 0.7 +0.8
James Kaprielian 28 pre-arb 270.3 0.7 +0.4
Ken Waldichuk 24 70.3 0.1 +0.9
A.J. Puk 27 pre-arb 620.3 0.7 +0.3
Luis Barrera 26 pre-arb 320.2 0.2 +0.8
Dérmis Garcia 24 390.2 0.3 +0.5
Tyler Cyr↔ PHI 29 110.1 0.1 +0.4
JP Sears↔ NYY 26 100.1 0.1 +0.3
Joel Payamps↔ KCR 28 pre-arb 120.1 0.2 +0.3
Skye Bolt 28 pre-arb 420.1 0.6 -0.2
Ryan Castellani 26 30.1 0.1 +0.2
David McKay↔ NYY 27 10.0 0.0 +0.2
Lou Trivino↔ NYY 30 arb 390.0 1.8 -1.7
Kevin Smith 25 pre-arb 470.0 0.3 -0.2
Shea Langeliers 24 400.0 0.2 -0.1
Collin Wiles 28 40.0 0.1 -0.0
Domingo Acevedo 28 pre-arb 700.0 0.7 -0.7
Mickey McDonald 27 4-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Justin Grimm 33 15-0.0
Nate Mondou 27 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Sam Moll 30 pre-arb 53-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Drew Jackson 28 3-0.0
Parker Markel 31 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Jonah Bride 26 58-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Cody Thomas 27 10-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Austin Allen 28 5-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Adam Kolarek 33 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Domingo Tapia 30 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.1 -0.7
Cal Stevenson 25 23-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Jared Koenig 28 10-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Sam Selman 31 pre-arb 16-0.2 0.2 -1.0
Christian Lopes 29 4-0.2
Norge Ruiz 28 14-0.2 0.2 -1.1
Adrián Martinez 25 12-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Jordan Diaz 21 15-0.3 0.1 -1.1
David MacKinnon↔ ANA 27 6-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Vimael Machín 28 pre-arb 73-0.3 0.4 -1.4
Kirby Snead 27 pre-arb 46-0.3 0.6 -1.7
Austin Pruitt 32 arb 39-0.3 0.5 -1.7
Matt Davidson↔ ARI 31 arb 8-0.3 0.0 -1.3
Jake Lemoine 28 9-0.4
Ernie Clement↔ CLE 26 pre-arb 6-0.4 0.0 -1.4
Zach Logue 26 14-0.4 0.3 -1.8
Billy McKinney 27 arb 23-0.5 0.7 -2.7
Stephen Piscotty 31 FA-elig 42-0.5 7.6 -9.6
Chad Pinder 30 FA-elig 111-0.6 2.7 -4.8
Sheldon Neuse 27 pre-arb 89-0.7 0.5 -3.2
Stephen Vogt 37 FA-elig 70-0.9 0.8 -4.1
Cristian Pache 23 pre-arb 91-1.0 0.5 -4.0
Jed Lowrie 38 FA-elig 50-1.0 0.8 -4.5
Adam Oller 27 19-1.1 0.5 -4.7

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Zach Jackson0.9
Conner Capel0.6
Nick Allen0.5
Christian Bethancourt0.5
Dany Jiménez0.4
Ken Waldichuk0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Matt Olson5.0
Matt Chapman3.7
Sean Manaea3.4
Chris Bassitt3.3
Mark Canha2.9
Starling Marte2.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$48.9M
2023 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Elvis Andrus3313.000$10.1MFREE AGENT
Stephen Piscotty317.000$7.6MFREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie3814.000$850kFREE AGENT
Stephen Vogt378.064$850kFREE AGENT
Justin Grimm338.153FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Frankie Montas294.015$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Pinder305.047$2.7MFREE AGENT
Ramón Laureano273.014$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Kemp304.098$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Lou Trivino303.163$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Pruitt323.098$485kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Davidson313.112$33kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Jackson283.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (51)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Sean Murphy272.029$725kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Blackburn282.018$710kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Kaprielian281.004$705kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Brown291.104$705kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Irvin281.120$705kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Puk271.124$705kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dany Jiménez280.031$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daulton Jefferies260.048$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy McKinney272.107$700kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Jackson270.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Moll300.075$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Acevedo280.033$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Skye Bolt280.099$619kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirby Snead270.033$615kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sheldon Neuse270.078$542kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Oller270.000$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Allen230.000$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Pache230.079$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonah Bride260.000$438kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vimael Machín281.043$373kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Smith250.114$277kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dérmis Garcia24$265k
Zach Logue260.000$254kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Selman311.125$238kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrián Martinez250.000$204kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shea Langeliers240.000$192kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Kolarek332.166$188kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Bethancourt302.038$188kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Koenig280.000$169kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Norge Ruiz28$162k
Luis Barrera260.037$162kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Payamps281.027$153kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Tapia300.125$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Waldichuk240.000$131kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JP Sears260.000$127kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Allen281.017$116kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cal Stevenson250.000$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Cyr290.000$102kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Wiles28$92k
Cody Thomas270.000$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Diaz210.000$65kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Castellani261.144$54kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ernie Clement260.096$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Parker Markel31$38k
David MacKinnon27$37k
Conner Capel250.000$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mickey McDonald27$35k
David McKay272.071$10kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Mondou27$8k
Christian Lopes29
Jake Lemoine28

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3