MIL⇄ATL⇄OAK

MILMIL David Stearns net +$139.2M net +18.3

received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $54M expected surplus · +$144.8M realized received 7.0 ± 7 expected · 19.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2023 odds 5% → 17% (+11.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

William ContrerasC·25y·R/R

+$14.9M+$14.9M± $49M exp surplusrealized +$140.8M 5.1± 6 exp WARrealized 17.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

1.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Justin YeagerP·25y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#997 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joel PayampsP·29y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net −$124.0M net -8.7

received +$57.6M+$54.4M ± $50M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 16.3 ± 6 expected · 8.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2023 odds 98% → 98% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sean MurphyC·28y·R/R

+$57.4M+$54.6M± $50M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 16.3± 6 exp WARrealized 8.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.7/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

2.85/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$15.2M net -9.6

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $42M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 6.2 ± 5 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2023 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyle MullerP·25y·R/L

+$8.1M+$8.1M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 2.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

#44 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.43/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Royber SalinasP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Freddy TarnokP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#80 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Manny PiñaC·36y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

1.20/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Esteury RuizOF·24y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.