TOR⇄OAK

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$48.0M net +8.2

received +$40.0M+$40.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$38.4M realized received 5.8 ± 3 expected · 6.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2022 odds 66% → 85% (+18.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt Chapman3B·29y·R/R

+$40.2M+$40.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$38.4M 5.8± 3 exp WARrealized 6.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

2.91/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$48.0M net -8.2

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $55M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 5.4 ± 7 expected · -1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2022 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gunnar HoglundP·22y·L/R

+$10.9M+$10.9M± $42M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 3.1± 5 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#19 overall draft pick → 0.57/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Kirby SneadP·27y·L/L

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#312 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Zach LogueP·26y·L/L

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#279 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Kevin Smith3B/SS·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#129 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.