PHI⇄OAK

PHIPHI Pat Gillick net −$8.8M net +3.8

received +$111.2M+$111.2M ± $32M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 7.9 ± 4 expected · 6.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2008 odds 81% → 79% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe BlantonP·27y·R/R

+$111.2M+$111.2M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 7.9± 4 exp WARrealized 6.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.62/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$8.8M net -3.8

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $40M expected surplus · +$16.0M realized received 5.0 ± 5 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2008 odds 5% → 5% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adrian Cardenas2B·20y·L/R

+$6.4M+$6.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #76.0 prospect (Baseball America #76 (2008)) → 0.45/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Matthew SpencerLF·22y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#113 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Josh OutmanP·23y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

#307 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.