OAK⇄TOR

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$8.8M net +2.3

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2006 odds 14% → 14% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chad GaudinP·23y·R/R

−$1.2M−$1.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

#1009 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net −$8.8M net -2.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2006 odds 47% → 46% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dustin MajewskiRF·24y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#92 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.