RRosternomics

Yankees NYY

GM: Brian Cashman

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 2.0× league · TAB -7.7
-7.7TAB — talent above budget25th/30
-7.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-5.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
40%dead money %20th/30
0.519win %13th/30
35.1roster fWAR11th/30
-122surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$227Mpayroll $M2nd/30

Roster

CFJacoby Ellsbury 141GBrett Gardner 25GIchiro Suzuki 5G
LFBrett Gardner 126GChris Young 73GAlfonso Soriano 11G
RFIchiro Suzuki 119GCarlos Beltrán 32GAlfonso Soriano 26G
SSDerek Jeter 130GStephen Drew 51GBrendan Ryan 25G
2BBrian Roberts 91GStephen Drew 34GMartín Prado 21G
3BChase Headley 127GMartín Prado 110GZelous Wheeler 18G
1BMark Teixeira 117GBrian McCann 16GChase Headley 7G
STARTERSHiroki Kuroda 3.1WARMasahiro Tanaka 2.9WARMichael Pineda 2.1WARBrandon McCarthy 1.7WARShane Greene 1.0WAR
CBrian McCann 108GFrancisco Cervelli 42GJohn Ryan Murphy 30G
DHCarlos Beltrán 76GAlfonso Soriano 25GDerek Jeter 15G
BULLPEN David Robertson 39svAdam Warren 23hDellin Betances 22hShawn Kelley 12hDavid Huff 4hEsmil Rogers 4hJosh Outman 2hPreston Claiborne 0h
CBrian McCann 108 · Francisco Cervelli 42 · John Ryan Murphy 30
1BMark Teixeira 117 · Brian McCann 16 · Chase Headley 7
2BBrian Roberts 91 · Stephen Drew 34 · Martín Prado 21
3BChase Headley 127 · Martín Prado 110 · Zelous Wheeler 18
SSDerek Jeter 130 · Stephen Drew 51 · Brendan Ryan 25
LFBrett Gardner 126 · Chris Young 73 · Alfonso Soriano 11
CFJacoby Ellsbury 141 · Brett Gardner 25 · Ichiro Suzuki 5
RFIchiro Suzuki 119 · Carlos Beltrán 32 · Alfonso Soriano 26
DHCarlos Beltrán 76 · Alfonso Soriano 25 · Derek Jeter 15
SPHiroki Kuroda 3.1 · Masahiro Tanaka 2.9 · Michael Pineda 2.1 · Brandon McCarthy 1.7 · Shane Greene 1.0
BP David Robertson 39 · Adam Warren 23 · Dellin Betances 22 · Shawn Kelley 12 · David Huff 4 · Esmil Rogers 4 · Josh Outman 2 · Preston Claiborne 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jacoby Ellsbury 30 FA-elig 1493.5 21.1 -10.8
Brett Gardner 30 FA-elig 1483.3 5.6 +4.2
Brian McCann 30 FA-elig 1403.2 17.0 -7.6
Hiroki Kuroda 39 FA-elig 323.1 16.0 -7.0
Dellin Betances 26 arb 703.0 0.5 +8.2
Masahiro Tanaka 25 pre-arb 202.9 22.0 -13.6
Chase Headley↔ SDP 30 FA-elig 582.3 4.5 +2.3
Michael Pineda 25 arb 132.1 0.5 +5.5
Francisco Cervelli 28 FA-elig 491.9 0.7 +4.7
Brandon McCarthy↔ ARI 30 FA-elig 141.7 4.5 +0.4
David Robertson 29 FA-elig 631.4 5.2 -1.0
Adam Warren 26 pre-arb 691.2 0.5 +3.0
Martín Prado↔ ARI 30 FA-elig 371.2 2.8 +0.5
Ichiro Suzuki 40 FA-elig 1431.1 6.5 -3.3
Yangervis Solarte↔ SDP 26 751.1 0.2 +3.0
Shane Greene 25 151.0 0.3 +2.6
Chris Young↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 230.9 1.5 +1.2
Kelly Johnson↔ BAL 32 FA-elig 770.8 2.2 +0.0
Chris Capuano↔ BOS 35 FA-elig 120.7 0.7 +1.5
Shawn Kelley 30 arb 590.7 1.8 +0.4
Mark Teixeira 34 FA-elig 1230.7 22.5 -20.5
John Ryan Murphy 23 pre-arb 320.5 0.5 +1.0
Chase Whitley 25 240.5 0.2 +1.3
Matt Thornton↔ WSN 37 FA-elig 460.5 2.5 -1.2
David Phelps 27 pre-arb 320.4 0.5 +0.5
Brian Roberts 36 FA-elig 910.3 2.0 -1.2
José Pirela 24 70.2
Scott Sizemore 29 60.2
Antoan Richardson 30 130.2
Derek Jeter 40 FA-elig 1450.2 12.0 -11.5
Bryan Mitchell 23 30.1 0.1 +0.2
Rich Hill↔ ANA 34 FA-elig 140.1 0.3 -0.1
Josh Outman↔ CLE 29 FA-elig 90.1 0.3 -0.0
Preston Claiborne 26 pre-arb 180.1 0.5 -0.3
CC Sabathia 33 FA-elig 80.0 23.0 -22.9
Chris Leroux 30 20.0
Chaz Roe 27 30.0
Esmil Rogers↔ TOR 28 arb 18-0.0 1.0 -1.0
David Huff↔ SFG 29 arb 30-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Wade LeBlanc↔ ANA 29 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Vidal Nuño↔ ARI 26 pre-arb 17-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Bruce Billings 28 1-0.1
Dean Anna 27 12-0.1
Austin Romine 25 arb 7-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Cesar Cabral 25 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Jeff Francis↔ CIN 33 2-0.1
Eury Pérez 24 4-0.2
Zelous Wheeler 27 29-0.2 0.2 -0.7
José Ramírez 24 8-0.2
Zoilo Almonte 25 pre-arb 13-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Jim Miller 32 2-0.3
Alfredo Aceves 31 10-0.4 1.2 -2.3
Matt Daley 32 13-0.4
Iván Nova 27 arb 4-0.4 3.3 -4.5
Carlos Beltrán 37 FA-elig 109-0.5 15.0 -16.5
Brendan Ryan 32 FA-elig 49-0.7 2.0 -3.9
Alfonso Soriano 38 FA-elig 67-0.9 18.0 -20.7
Stephen Drew↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 46-1.0 5.5 -8.5

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Jacoby Ellsbury3.5
Brian McCann3.2
Masahiro Tanaka2.9
Chase Headley2.3
Michael Pineda2.1
Brandon McCarthy1.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Robinson Canó5.9
Andy Pettitte2.7
Chris Stewart2.4
Mariano Rivera1.3
Curtis Granderson1.2
Phil Hughes1.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$226.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
CC Sabathia3313.000$23.0M$23.0M$25.0M$25.0M$10.0M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Teixeira3411.000$22.5M$23.1M$23.1MFREE AGENT
Jacoby Ellsbury306.037$21.1M$21.1M$21.1M$21.1MFREE AGENT
Alfonso Soriano3815.000$18.0MFREE AGENT
Brian McCann308.117$17.0M$17.0M$17.0MFREE AGENT
Hiroki Kuroda396.000$16.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Beltrán3715.014$15.0M$15.0M$9.8MFREE AGENT
Derek Jeter4018.042$12.0MFREE AGENT
Ichiro Suzuki4013.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Stephen Drew317.079$5.5M$5.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon McCarthy307.122$4.5MFREE AGENT
Martín Prado306.105$2.8MFREE AGENT
Matt Thornton379.129$2.5MFREE AGENT
Kelly Johnson328.127$2.2MFREE AGENT
Brendan Ryan326.082$2.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Roberts3613.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Young307.045$1.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Chris Capuano359.001$675k$5.0MFREE AGENT
Rich Hill346.037$339kFREE AGENT
Jeff Francis338.157FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Brett Gardner305.072$5.6MFREE AGENT
David Robertson295.070$5.2MFREE AGENT
Chase Headley305.123$4.5MFREE AGENT
Iván Nova273.024$3.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Kelley304.128$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Aceves315.001$1.2MFREE AGENT
Esmil Rogers283.135$979kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Cervelli283.146$700kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Outman294.036$281kARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Daley325.000FREE AGENT
Chris Leroux305.000FREE AGENT
Scott Sizemore294.055ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Masahiro Tanaka250.000$22.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Phelps271.156$541kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Pineda252.099$538kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Warren261.036$527kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Romine251.143$525kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Claiborne260.150$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zoilo Almonte250.104$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesar Cabral251.105$511kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Ryan Murphy231.000$503kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dellin Betances260.078$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Huff292.062$329kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vidal Nuño260.055$277kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Greene250.000$251kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zelous Wheeler27$240k
Chase Whitley250.000$172kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yangervis Solarte260.000$166kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Mitchell230.000$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc292.154$8kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Antoan Richardson300.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Miller322.010ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chaz Roe270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Billings28
Eury Pérez24
José Pirela242.002ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ramírez240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dean Anna270.031Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Yankees 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3