RRosternomics

Yankees NYY

GM: Brian Cashman

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 2.76× league · TAB -6.5
-6.5TAB — talent above budget23rd/30
+5.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars3rd/30
-3.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
29%dead money %17th/30
0.623win %2nd/30
40.3roster fWAR9th/30
-115surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$184Mpayroll $M1st/30

2004: made playoffs · 101–61. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFBernie Williams 97GKenny Lofton 65GBubba Crosby 12G
LFHideki Matsui 160GBubba Crosby 11GRuben Sierra 8G
RFGary Sheffield 136GBubba Crosby 25GRuben Sierra 22G
SSDerek Jeter 154GEnrique Wilson 16GFelix Escalona 4G
2BMiguel Cairo 113GEnrique Wilson 80GHomer Bush 4G
3BAlex Rodriguez 155GMiguel Cairo 8GAndy Phillips 4G
1BJohn Olerud 124GTony Clark 99GJason Giambi 47G
STARTERSJon Lieber 3.6WARMike Mussina 2.9WARKevin Brown 2.3WARJavier Vazquez 2.1WAROrlando Hernandez 1.7WAR
CJorge Posada 134GJohn Flaherty 46GDioner Navarro 4G
DHRuben Sierra 54GBernie Williams 50GJason Giambi 28G
BULLPEN Mariano Rivera 53svTom Gordon 36hPaul Quantrill 21hFélix Heredia 5hScott Proctor 2hTanyon Sturtze 1hBret Prinz 1hC.J. Nitkowski 0h
CJorge Posada 134 · John Flaherty 46 · Dioner Navarro 4
1BJohn Olerud 124 · Tony Clark 99 · Jason Giambi 47
2BMiguel Cairo 113 · Enrique Wilson 80 · Homer Bush 4
3BAlex Rodriguez 155 · Miguel Cairo 8 · Andy Phillips 4
SSDerek Jeter 154 · Enrique Wilson 16 · Felix Escalona 4
LFHideki Matsui 160 · Bubba Crosby 11 · Ruben Sierra 8
CFBernie Williams 97 · Kenny Lofton 65 · Bubba Crosby 12
RFGary Sheffield 136 · Bubba Crosby 25 · Ruben Sierra 22
DHRuben Sierra 54 · Bernie Williams 50 · Jason Giambi 28
SPJon Lieber 3.6 · Mike Mussina 2.9 · Kevin Brown 2.3 · Javier Vazquez 2.1 · Orlando Hernandez 1.7
BP Mariano Rivera 53 · Tom Gordon 36 · Paul Quantrill 21 · Félix Heredia 5 · Scott Proctor 2 · Tanyon Sturtze 1 · Bret Prinz 1 · C.J. Nitkowski 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Alex Rodriguez 28 FA-elig 1556.6 22.0 -10.7
Derek Jeter 30 FA-elig 1544.7 18.6 -10.5
Jorge Posada 33 FA-elig 1374.1 9.0 -1.9
Gary Sheffield 35 FA-elig 1543.8 13.0 -6.5
Jon Lieber 34 FA-elig 273.6 2.7 +3.4
Hideki Matsui 30 pre-arb 1623.0 7.0 -1.8
Mike Mussina 35 FA-elig 272.9 16.0 -10.9
Tom Gordon 36 FA-elig 802.8 3.5 +1.3
Mariano Rivera 34 FA-elig 742.5 10.9 -6.6
Kevin Brown 39 FA-elig 222.3 15.7 -11.7
Javier Vazquez 27 FA-elig 322.1 9.0 -5.4
Orlando Hernandez 38 FA-elig 151.7 0.5 +2.4
Paul Quantrill 35 FA-elig 861.0 3.0 -1.3
Miguel Cairo 30 FA-elig 1220.5 0.9 -0.1
John Olerud↔ SEA 35 FA-elig 490.4 3.0 -2.3
Brad Halsey 23 80.4
Tony Clark 32 FA-elig 1060.4 0.8 -0.1
Tanyon Sturtze 33 280.3
Kenny Lofton 37 FA-elig 830.3 3.1 -2.6
Ruben Sierra 38 FA-elig 1070.2 1.0 -0.7
John Flaherty 36 FA-elig 470.1 0.8 -0.7
Andy Phillips 27 50.1
Gabe White↔ CIN 32 FA-elig 240.0 0.7 -0.6
Dioner Navarro 20 50.0
Alex Graman 26 30.0
Jason Giambi 33 FA-elig 800.0 12.4 -12.4
Juan Padilla↔ CIN 27 60.0
Sam Marsonek 25 10.0
Donovan Osborne 35 FA-elig 9-0.0 0.5 -0.5
C.J. Nitkowski↔ ATL 31 FA-elig 19-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Felix Escalona 25 5-0.1
Steve Karsay 32 FA-elig 7-0.1 6.0 -6.1
Jorge De Paula 25 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Felix Heredia 29 FA-elig 47-0.1 1.8 -2.0
Jose Contreras↔ CHW 32 pre-arb 18-0.1 4.9 -5.2
Homer Bush 31 9-0.1
Bret Prinz 27 26-0.2
Bernie Williams 35 FA-elig 148-0.2 12.4 -12.7
Scott Proctor 27 26-0.2
Travis Lee 29 FA-elig 7-0.3 2.0 -2.5
Esteban Loaiza↔ CHW 32 FA-elig 10-0.3 1.3 -1.8
Bubba Crosby 27 pre-arb 55-0.4 0.3 -1.0
Enrique Wilson 30 FA-elig 93-1.2 0.7 -2.8

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Alex Rodriguez6.6
Gary Sheffield3.8
Jon Lieber3.6
Tom Gordon2.8
Kevin Brown2.3
Javier Vazquez2.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Alfonso Soriano5.1
Andy Pettitte5.1
Roger Clemens4.5
David Wells3.8
Raul Mondesi2.4
Nick Johnson2.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$183.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Alex Rodriguez2810.000$22.0M$26.0M$21.7M$22.7M$28.0M$33.0M$33.0M
Derek Jeter309.000$18.6M$19.6M$20.6M$21.6M$21.6M$21.6M$22.6M
Mike Mussina3513.000$16.0M$19.0M$19.0M$11.1M$11.1MFREE AGENT
Kevin Brown3918.000$15.7M$15.7MFREE AGENT
Gary Sheffield3516.000$13.0M$13.0M$10.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Giambi339.000$12.4M$13.4M$20.4M$23.4M$23.4MFREE AGENT
Bernie Williams3513.000$12.4M$12.4M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Mariano Rivera349.000$10.9M$10.5M$10.5M$10.5M$15.0M$15.0M$15.0M
Javier Vazquez276.000$9.0MFREE AGENT$11.5M
Jorge Posada339.000$9.0M$11.0M$12.0M$12.0M$13.1M$13.1M$13.1M
Steve Karsay3211.000$6.0M$4.2MFREE AGENT
Tom Gordon3616.000$3.5M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Kenny Lofton3713.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Paul Quantrill3512.000$3.0M$1.3MFREE AGENT
John Olerud3515.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jon Lieber3410.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Travis Lee296.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Felix Heredia298.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Esteban Loaiza329.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Ruben Sierra3818.000$1.0M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Miguel Cairo308.000$900kFREE AGENT$1.0M$494k
John Flaherty3612.000$775k$800kFREE AGENT
Tony Clark329.000$750kFREE AGENT
Gabe White3210.000$722kFREE AGENT
Enrique Wilson307.000$700kFREE AGENT
Orlando Hernandez386.000$500kFREE AGENT
Donovan Osborne3512.000$450kFREE AGENT
C.J. Nitkowski319.000$174kFREE AGENT
Homer Bush317.000FREE AGENT
Tanyon Sturtze339.000$850k$1.5MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (1)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Bret Prinz273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Hideki Matsui301.000$7.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Contreras321.000$4.9MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge De Paula251.000$303kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bubba Crosby271.000$301kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Graman26
Felix Escalona252.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Phillips270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro200.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Proctor270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Marsonek25
Brad Halsey230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Padilla27

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Yankees 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3