HOU⇄NYY

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net +$9.6M net +5.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $13M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 5.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2004 odds 62% → 71% (+9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Lamb1B/3B·28y·L/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 5.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

-0.15/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$9.6M net -5.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2004 odds 54% → 44% (-10.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan De Leon

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.