LAD⇄NYY

LADLAD Dan Evans net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2004 odds 67% → 65% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian Myrow1B·27y·L/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$2.4M net -0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2004 odds 42% → 44% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tanyon SturtzeP·33y·R/R

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.