MIN⇄SFG

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$0.8M net +0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $12M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2019 odds 96% → 96% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John AndreoliOF·29y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#519 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.49 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net −$0.8M net -0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.7 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2019 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Michael ReedOF·26y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#161 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.