RRosternomics

Twins MIN

GM: Terry Ryan

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 6 in this regime · payroll 0.83× league · TAB +11.4
+11.4TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+16.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-4.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
31%dead money %16th/30
0.593win %3rd/30
43.3roster fWAR2nd/30
+10surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$63Mpayroll $M20th/30

2006: made playoffs · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFTorii Hunter 143GJason Tyner 18GLew Ford 13G
LFLew Ford 64GRondell White 38GShannon Stewart 34G
RFMichael Cuddyer 142GLew Ford 22GJason Kubel 7G
SSJason Bartlett 99GNick Punto 26GAlexi Casilla 2G
2BLuis Castillo 142GNick Punto 17GLuis Antonio Rodriguez 14G
3BNick Punto 89GTony Batista 50GLuis Antonio Rodriguez 29G
1BJustin Morneau 153GPhil Nevin 44GMichael Cuddyer 6G
STARTERSJohan Santana 6.7WARFrancisco Liriano 3.7WARBrad Radke 1.6WARBoof Bonser 1.0WARMatt Garza 0.6WAR
CJoe Mauer 120GMike Redmond 43GChris Heintz 2G
DHPhil Nevin 54GRondell White 53GJason Kubel 29G
BULLPEN Joe Nathan 36svJuan Rincon 26hDennys Reyes 16hJesse Crain 10hPat Neshek 10hMatt Guerrier 2hGlen Perkins 1hWillie Eyre 0h
CJoe Mauer 120 · Mike Redmond 43 · Chris Heintz 2
1BJustin Morneau 153 · Phil Nevin 44 · Michael Cuddyer 6
2BLuis Castillo 142 · Nick Punto 17 · Luis Antonio Rodriguez 14
3BNick Punto 89 · Tony Batista 50 · Luis Antonio Rodriguez 29
SSJason Bartlett 99 · Nick Punto 26 · Alexi Casilla 2
LFLew Ford 64 · Rondell White 38 · Shannon Stewart 34
CFTorii Hunter 143 · Jason Tyner 18 · Lew Ford 13
RFMichael Cuddyer 142 · Lew Ford 22 · Jason Kubel 7
DHPhil Nevin 54 · Rondell White 53 · Jason Kubel 29
SPJohan Santana 6.7 · Francisco Liriano 3.7 · Brad Radke 1.6 · Boof Bonser 1.0 · Matt Garza 0.6
BP Joe Nathan 36 · Juan Rincon 26 · Dennys Reyes 16 · Jesse Crain 10 · Pat Neshek 10 · Matt Guerrier 2 · Glen Perkins 1 · Willie Eyre 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Johan Santana 27 FA-elig 346.7 8.8 +4.6
Joe Mauer 23 pre-arb 1405.8 0.4 +11.2
Justin Morneau 25 arb 1573.8 0.4 +7.1
Francisco Liriano 22 pre-arb 283.7 0.3 +7.0
Nick Punto 28 arb 1353.6 0.7 +6.5
Jason Bartlett 26 993.1
Michael Cuddyer 27 arb 1503.1 1.3 +4.8
Joe Nathan 31 FA-elig 643.1 3.8 +2.3
Torii Hunter 30 FA-elig 1472.3 10.8 -6.2
Luis Castillo 30 FA-elig 1422.2 5.1 -0.7
Brad Radke 33 FA-elig 281.6 9.0 -5.8
Jason Tyner 29 621.5
Juan Rincon 27 arb 751.4 0.9 +1.9
Boof Bonser 24 181.0
Dennys Reyes 29 660.9 0.6 +1.3
Jesse Crain 24 pre-arb 680.9 0.4 +1.5
Mike Redmond 35 FA-elig 470.8 0.9 +0.7
Pat Neshek 25 320.8
Matt Garza 22 100.6
Scott Baker 24 pre-arb 160.5 0.3 +0.7
Glen Perkins 23 40.2
Kyle Lohse↔ CIN 27 arb 220.2 2.6 -2.2
Shannon Stewart 32 FA-elig 440.1 6.5 -6.2
Luis Antonio Rodriguez 26 pre-arb 590.0 0.3 -0.3
Alexi Casilla 21 90.0
Lew Ford 29 arb 104-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Chris Heintz 31 2-0.0
Matt Guerrier 27 pre-arb 39-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Terry Tiffee 27 20-0.0
Josh Rabe 27 24-0.1
Phil Nevin↔ CHC 35 FA-elig 16-0.1 1.3 -1.6
Tony Batista 32 FA-elig 50-0.1 1.2 -1.5
Mike Smith 28 1-0.2
Ruben Sierra 40 14-0.2
Willie Eyre 27 pre-arb 42-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Carlos Silva 27 arb 36-0.5 3.2 -4.2
Juan Castro↔ CIN 34 FA-elig 50-0.5 0.5 -1.5
Jason Kubel 24 pre-arb 73-1.1 0.3 -2.6
Rondell White 34 FA-elig 99-1.3 2.5 -5.1

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Luis Castillo2.2
Boof Bonser1.0
Dennys Reyes0.9
Pat Neshek0.8
Matt Garza0.6
Glen Perkins0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Matthew LeCroy0.6
Joe Mays0.5
Glenn Williams0.3
Jacque Jones0.2
Luis Rivas0.1
Dave Gassner0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$63.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Torii Hunter309.000$10.8M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Brad Radke3311.000$9.0MFREE AGENT
Johan Santana276.000$8.8M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Shannon Stewart3211.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Luis Castillo3010.000$5.1M$3.6MFREE AGENT
Joe Nathan317.000$3.8M$5.2M$6.0M$11.2MFREE AGENT$11.2M
Rondell White3413.000$2.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Phil Nevin3511.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Tony Batista3210.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Mike Redmond358.000$900k$950k$950k$950kFREE AGENT
Dennys Reyes299.000$550k$1.0M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Juan Castro3411.000$481kFREE AGENT
Ruben Sierra4020.000FREE AGENT
Jason Tyner296.000$400kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Carlos Silva274.000$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Lohse275.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Michael Cuddyer275.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Juan Rincon275.000$900kFREE AGENT
Nick Punto285.000$690kFREE AGENT
Lew Ford293.000$425kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Morneau253.000$385kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Joe Mauer232.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Crain242.000$361kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Guerrier272.000$344kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Antonio Rodriguez261.000$332kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Baker241.000$330kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willie Eyre270.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Kubel242.000$327kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano221.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Smith28
Boof Bonser240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Heintz311.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bartlett262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terry Tiffee27
Josh Rabe27
Pat Neshek250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Glen Perkins230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexi Casilla210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Garza220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3