RRosternomics

Royals KCR

GM: Allard Baird

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 7 in this regime · payroll 0.64× league · TAB -10.0
-10.0TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-14.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-9.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
48%dead money %26th/30
0.383win %29th/30
18.8roster fWAR30th/30
-12surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/30
$49Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFJoey Gathright 130GDavid DeJesus 61GShane Costa 21G
LFEmil Brown 87GDavid DeJesus 73GEsteban German 14G
RFReggie Sanders 73GEmil Brown 54GShane Costa 39G
SSAngel Berroa 131GAndrés Blanco 25GMark Grudzielanek 4G
2BMark Grudzielanek 132GEsteban German 26GAndrés Blanco 7G
3BMark Teahen 109GTony Graffanino 27GEsteban German 24G
1BDoug Mientkiewicz 90GRyan Shealy 53GTony Graffanino 16G
STARTERSLuke Hudson 1.5WARMark Redman 1.2WAROdalis Perez 0.9WARJimmy Gobble 0.8WARBrandon Duckworth 0.6WAR
CJohn Buck 112GPaul Bako 53GPaul Phillips 13G
DHMike Sweeney 59GEsteban German 22GReggie Sanders 12G
BULLPEN Ambiorix Burgos 18svJoel Peralta 17hScott Dohmann 6hAndrew Sisco 5hJoe Nelson 5hTodd Wellemeyer 3hRyan Braun 0hJuan Carlos Oviedo 0h
CJohn Buck 112 · Paul Bako 53 · Paul Phillips 13
1BDoug Mientkiewicz 90 · Ryan Shealy 53 · Tony Graffanino 16
2BMark Grudzielanek 132 · Esteban German 26 · Andrés Blanco 7
3BMark Teahen 109 · Tony Graffanino 27 · Esteban German 24
SSAngel Berroa 131 · Andrés Blanco 25 · Mark Grudzielanek 4
LFEmil Brown 87 · David DeJesus 73 · Esteban German 14
CFJoey Gathright 130 · David DeJesus 61 · Shane Costa 21
RFReggie Sanders 73 · Emil Brown 54 · Shane Costa 39
DHMike Sweeney 59 · Esteban German 22 · Reggie Sanders 12
SPLuke Hudson 1.5 · Mark Redman 1.2 · Odalis Perez 0.9 · Jimmy Gobble 0.8 · Brandon Duckworth 0.6
BP Ambiorix Burgos 18 · Joel Peralta 17 · Scott Dohmann 6 · Andrew Sisco 5 · Joe Nelson 5 · Todd Wellemeyer 3 · Ryan Braun 0 · Juan Carlos Oviedo 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
David DeJesus 26 arb 1194.2 0.5 +7.8
Emil Brown 31 FA-elig 1473.3 1.8 +4.7
Mark Teahen 24 pre-arb 1093.0 0.3 +5.7
Mark Grudzielanek 36 FA-elig 1342.7 4.0 +1.4
Esteban German 28 arb 1061.6 0.3 +2.8
Luke Hudson 29 arb 261.5 0.3 +2.6
Mark Redman 32 FA-elig 291.2 4.5 -2.1
Tony Graffanino↔ MIL 34 FA-elig 691.0 1.1 +0.9
Ryan Shealy↔ COL 26 pre-arb 510.9 0.3 +1.6
Doug Mientkiewicz 32 FA-elig 910.9 1.9 -0.0
Odalis Perez↔ LAD 29 FA-elig 120.9 3.2 -1.4
John Buck 25 pre-arb 1140.8 0.3 +1.3
Jimmy Gobble 24 arb 600.8 0.3 +1.2
Elmer Dessens↔ LAD 35 FA-elig 430.8 1.2 +0.4
Adam Bernero↔ PHI 29 30.7
Brandon Duckworth 30 100.6
Joel Peralta 30 640.6 0.3 +0.9
Reggie Sanders 38 FA-elig 880.5 5.0 -3.9
Matt Stairs↔ DET 38 FA-elig 770.4 0.9 -0.2
Mike Sweeney 32 FA-elig 600.3 11.0 -10.4
Jeff Keppinger 26 220.3
Aaron Guiel↔ NYY 33 190.3
Paul Phillips 29 230.2
Joey Gathright↔ TBR 25 pre-arb 790.2 0.2 +0.2
Joe Nelson 31 430.2
Shane Costa 24 pre-arb 720.2 0.3 -0.0
Mike MacDougal↔ CHW 29 arb 40.1 0.1 +0.1
Andrés Blanco 22 330.1 0.3 -0.2
Steve Andrade 28 40.0
Angel Sanchez 22 80.0 0.3 -0.3
Bob Keppel 24 80.0
Denny Bautista↔ COL 25 pre-arb 8-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Zack Greinke 22 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Justin Huber 23 5-0.0
Ryan Braun 25 9-0.1
Kyle Snyder↔ BOS 28 1-0.1
Juan Carlos Oviedo 24 7-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Steve Stemle 29 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Mitch Maier 24 5-0.1
Chris Booker↔ WSN 29 1-0.2
Joselo Diaz 26 4-0.2
Seth Etherton 29 2-0.2
Todd Wellemeyer↔ MIA 27 arb 28-0.3 0.2 -0.7
Jorge De La Rosa↔ MIL 25 pre-arb 10-0.3 0.1 -0.8
Mike Wood 26 arb 23-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Andrew Sisco 23 pre-arb 65-0.4 0.3 -1.2
Jeremy Affeldt↔ COL 27 arb 27-0.5 0.5 -1.4
Kerry Robinson 32 18-0.5
Scott Dohmann↔ COL 28 pre-arb 21-0.5 0.1 -1.2
Joe Mays↔ CIN 30 FA-elig 6-0.6 0.5 -1.6
Paul Bako 34 FA-elig 56-0.6 0.7 -1.9
Runelvys Hernandez 28 21-0.6
Scott Elarton 30 FA-elig 20-1.0 4.0 -5.9
Ambiorix Burgos 22 pre-arb 68-1.2 0.3 -2.7
Angel Berroa 28 arb 132-1.5 2.0 -4.9

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Mark Grudzielanek2.7
Esteban German1.6
Luke Hudson1.5
Mark Redman1.2
Ryan Shealy0.9
Doug Mientkiewicz0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
D.J. Carrasco0.4
Terrence Long0.4
Shawn Camp0.2
J.P. Howell0.2
Ryan Jensen0.1
Brian Anderson0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$49.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Mike Sweeney3211.000$11.0M$11.0MFREE AGENT
Reggie Sanders3815.000$5.0M$5.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Redman327.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Scott Elarton308.000$4.0M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Grudzielanek3611.000$4.0M$4.0M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Odalis Perez298.000$3.2M$7.8MFREE AGENT
Doug Mientkiewicz328.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Emil Brown319.000$1.8M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Elmer Dessens3510.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Tony Graffanino3410.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Matt Stairs3814.000$888kFREE AGENT
Paul Bako348.000$700kFREE AGENT
Joe Mays307.000$462kFREE AGENT
Kerry Robinson328.000FREE AGENT
Seth Etherton296.000FREE AGENT
Adam Bernero296.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Angel Berroa285.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Affeldt274.000$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
David DeJesus263.000$500kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Wood263.000$350kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Gobble243.000$346kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Hudson294.000$337kARB 3FREE AGENT
Esteban German284.000$333kARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Wellemeyer273.000$212kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike MacDougal295.000$59kFREE AGENT
Kyle Snyder283.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Duckworth305.000FREE AGENT
Joe Nelson315.000FREE AGENT
Aaron Guiel334.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Runelvys Hernandez284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Zack Greinke222.000$366kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Buck252.000$350kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Sisco231.000$346kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Teahen241.000$344kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ambiorix Burgos221.000$340kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Peralta301.000$336kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Carlos Oviedo241.000$336kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Stemle291.000$330kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Costa241.000$328kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrés Blanco222.000$328kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Sanchez220.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Shealy261.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denny Bautista252.000$224kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Gathright252.000$199kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Dohmann282.000$146kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge De La Rosa252.000$120kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Phillips292.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Booker29
Joselo Diaz26
Justin Huber231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Maier240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Andrade28
Bob Keppel24
Jeff Keppinger262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Braun250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Royals 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3