KCR⇄NYM

KCRKCR Allard Baird net +$36.0M net +5.5

received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$35.2M realized received 2.7 ± 2 expected · 5.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2007 odds 2% → 3% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian BannisterP·26y·R/R

+$17.4M+$17.4M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$35.2M 2.7± 2 exp WARrealized 5.5

Prior

#199 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Omar Minaya net −$36.0M net -5.5

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $20M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2007 odds 68% → 55% (-12.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ambiorix BurgosP·23y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

-0.20/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.