LAD⇄KCR

LADLAD Ned Colletti net +$0.8M net +0.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $17M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Wilson Valdez2B/SS·28y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Allard Baird net −$0.8M net -0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jarod PlummerP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#781 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.